Key Moments
- Coca-Cola projected 2026 organic revenue growth of 4% to 5%, below market estimates of 5.3%.
- Fourth-quarter revenue came in at $11.82 billion versus expectations of $12.03 billion, while adjusted EPS of 58 cents topped forecasts of 56 cents.
- Softer soda demand in North America and Asia, alongside higher prices, pressured volumes and sent the stock down nearly 4% in premarket trading.
Muted Outlook Weighs on Shares
Coca-Cola on Tuesday projected slower revenue growth for 2026 after underwhelming fourth-quarter results, as softer demand for sodas in North America and Asia dragged on performance and pushed its shares down nearly 4% in premarket trading.
The company is navigating a leadership change, with veteran executive Henrique Braun scheduled to assume the CEO role on March 31. During this transition, Coca-Cola has been lifting beverage prices to counter higher input costs, a strategy that has strained the wallets of inflation-affected U.S. shoppers seeking more affordable pantry staples.
PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) highlighted the pricing pressure last week when it said it would reduce prices on key snack brands such as Lay’s and Doritos in response to consumer resistance following several years of price increases.
Demand Trends and Volume Performance
Coca-Cola’s unit overall case volumes increased 1% in the fourth quarter, matching the growth rate reported in the prior quarter. For the full year, volumes were flat, while pricing – which rose 4% for the year – was the primary driver of revenue performance.
Regionally, volume growth in the Asia-Pacific market was flat in the quarter as Coca-Cola faced intensifying competition from local and regional brands.
2026 Revenue Guidance and Market Reaction
Coca-Cola is targeting organic revenue growth of 4% to 5% in 2026. This compares with current estimates of 5.3% growth and a projected 5% increase in 2025.
“(The forecast) reads conservative, but is appropriate for the start of the year. Street likely wanted more,” said Jefferies analyst Kaumil Gajrawala in a note.
The company guided for annual adjusted earnings per share growth of 7% to 8%, versus expectations of a 7.9% increase.
Shift Toward Low-Sugar and Health-Focused Products
Coca-Cola has been leaning on expansion in zero-sugar soft drinks, sports beverages and ready-to-drink teas as U.S. consumers gravitate toward low-sugar choices amid broader adoption of appetite-suppressing weight-loss medications.
PepsiCo said it was betting on portion control to drive demand for its snacks. Coca-Cola has invested in products such as its protein-infused Fairlife milk to capture demand from health-conscious consumers.
Quarterly Financial Snapshot
| Metric | Reported | Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 Revenue | $11.82 billion | $12.03 billion |
| Q4 Adjusted EPS | 58 cents | 56 cents |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth Target | 4% – 5% | 5.3% |
| 2025 Organic Revenue Growth (Projected) | 5% | – |
| Annual Adjusted EPS Growth Guidance | 7% – 8% | 7.9% |
Share Performance
Coca-Cola’s shares have risen about 12% in 2025 and have outperformed PepsiCo over the past few years.
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