Crude Steadies Amid Easing U.S.–Iran Geopolitical Risk

Key Moments

Brent April futures traded at $67.82 a barrel and WTI at $63.31 a barrel, slightly lower in early U.S. hours.
Brent and WTI fell more than 3% and 2% last week, ending a seven-week winning streak.
Indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are set to continue after both sides reported positive discussions in Oman.

Oil Prices Pause After Weekly Loss

Oil prices held steady on Monday after notable losses last week. Signals from Washington and Tehran suggested ongoing diplomatic talks over Iran’s nuclear program. These developments eased immediate geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

At 08:35 ET (13:35 GMT), Brent April futures fell 0.3% to $67.82 per barrel. WTI crude slipped 0.4% to $63.31 per barrel.

Contract	Move	Price	Time
Brent April futures	-0.3%	$67.82 per barrel	08:35 ET (13:35 GMT)
WTI crude futures	-0.4%	$63.31 per barrel	08:35 ET (13:35 GMT)

Both benchmarks dropped last week—Brent fell over 3%, WTI over 2%. This marked their first weekly losses in seven weeks. The pullback reflected easing Iran-related concerns and a broader risk-off move in equity markets.

U.S.-Iran Talks Reduce Conflict Fears

Over the weekend, Washington and Tehran confirmed that indirect nuclear negotiations will continue. Both sides called the Oman talks on Friday constructive. This reassurance helped ease fears of imminent military conflict in the Middle East. Earlier, the U.S. had deployed multiple warships to the region, raising risk premiums in crude prices.

Despite reduced war fears, Iran signaled it would maintain nuclear enrichment efforts. This preserves some market uncertainty.

“Uncertainty remains over how events will unfold. The market will likely continue pricing a risk premium,” said ING analysts. “Although the indirect talks were constructive, the U.S. imposed additional sanctions on Iranian oil exports on Friday.”

Macro Data and Policy in Focus

Traders are also watching major economic data from key oil-consuming countries. In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls for January are due Wednesday, followed by CPI data on Friday. Analysts expect these reports to guide interest-rate expectations and reveal insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy under new chair Kevin Warsh.

In China, January CPI figures arrive Friday, just before the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. The numbers will shed light on domestic fuel demand in the world’s largest oil importer.

Upcoming Energy Reports

Oil market participants anticipate several key publications this week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday. OPEC follows with its monthly report on Wednesday, and the International Energy Agency issues its monthly update on Thursday.

These reports will provide updated supply-demand balances, production trends, and demand forecasts across major consuming regions.

Dollar Strength Limits Crude Upside

Strength in the U.S. dollar ahead of key economic releases has capped oil gains. Last week, crude fell 2%. Markets are closely watching China’s data, which could influence energy demand sentiment further.