Gold and Silver Rebound as Safe-Haven Flows Pick Up

Key Moments

Risk-Off Tone Lifts Precious Metals

Gold (XAU/USD) halted its recent downward move and found strong buying interest around the 4,840 area as investors shifted toward safe-haven assets. The risk-off tone in broader markets encouraged inflows into gold, helping the metal rebound sharply from lower levels and reach an intraday high close to 4,846.

Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further in 2026 have been another supportive factor for gold, reinforcing the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Silver (XAG/USD) also extended its upward move, trading close to the 74.00 mark with a gain of roughly 4.26%. The advance in silver has been underpinned by the same risk-off sentiment, a softer U.S. dollar, and growing conviction that the Fed will move toward additional rate reductions, all of which have helped bolster demand for the metal.

Soft U.S. Labor Data and Rate Cut Bets Pressure the Dollar

On the U.S. side, the dollar lost momentum as markets increasingly priced in lower interest rates. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are anticipating at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. These expectations strengthened after a series of weaker labor market releases.

The ADP report showed that private-sector payrolls increased by only 22K in January, missing both the prior month’s revised 37K reading and market forecasts. The JOLTS survey also pointed to a softer backdrop, with job openings falling to 6.542 million from 6.928 million previously. At the same time, weekly initial jobless claims rose to 231K, exceeding both the previous reading and consensus expectations.

This combination of weaker data and growing rate cut expectations put pressure on the U.S. dollar, in turn lending support to gold prices as investors sought protection in safe-haven assets.

Gold Technical View: Key Levels Around $4,840–$5,150

On the 4-hour timeframe, gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,840 after failing to reclaim the $5,000 level, leaving short-term downside pressure intact. Recent candlesticks feature small bodies with notable wicks, signaling indecision rather than aggressive selling.

Price action remains capped by a declining trendline drawn from the January high and by the 50-period EMA, which sits close to $4,950 and is acting as resistance. On the downside, gold is holding above a support zone between $4,680 and $4,700. This area aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,855 and a rising lower trendline originating from the late January low.

The main bullish structure is still defined by the 200-period EMA, positioned around $4,395, which has not yet been challenged. The RSI hovers in the mid-40s, indicating a relatively stable price environment without a clear bullish impulse at this stage.

If gold breaks and sustains a move above $4,950, a continuation toward $5,150 becomes possible. Conversely, a decisive break below $4,680 could open the door for a deeper decline toward the $4,400 area.

Gold Trading Strategy Snapshot

Trade idea: Consider buying if gold breaks and holds above $4,950, with a projected target at $5,150 and a stop level placed below $4,680.

Silver Technical View: Bears Maintain Advantage Below Key Averages

On the 2-hour chart, silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $72.40 as it continues to retrace from the $120 high. Recent candles show small bodies and lower highs, indicating tentative recovery attempts rather than a firm base.

The price remains under a descending trendline drawn from late January, maintaining short-term bearish pressure. Silver is also trading below the 50-period EMA near $90 and the 200-period EMA around $92, reinforcing a negative technical setup. A former support level at $81.30 has now turned into resistance.

On the downside, the next notable support zones are seen around $64.40 and then $60.00, both corresponding to earlier consolidation areas and demand regions. Price action is currently unfolding within a falling channel, indicating a controlled decline rather than a sharp selloff.

Momentum indicators show limited improvement, with the RSI sitting below 40. This points to ongoing control by sellers, with no clear evidence yet that selling pressure has been exhausted. A shift in bias would require a break above the descending trendline, which has not occurred so far.

Silver Trading Strategy Snapshot

Trade idea: Consider selling on rebounds while price remains below $75, targeting $64, with a protective stop placed above $82.