UBS Sees Polish Zloty Holding Firm Against Euro and Dollar Through 2026

Key Moments

UBS Holds Steady on 2026 Zloty Outlook

Investing.com – UBS left its quarterly projections for the Polish zloty unchanged on Monday, signaling an expectation of relative stability against major currencies after the currency’s recent bout of appreciation.

The bank noted that the zloty traded broadly flat through the spring and summer, before showing “tentative signs of strength” in the fourth quarter. UBS reported that the currency is now trading close to 4.20 against the euro in its latest currency outlook.

Policy Dynamics and Near-Term Currency Support

UBS anticipates that the zloty will “stay firm in the coming months” as the National Bank of Poland’s monetary easing phase nears its end. According to the bank, remaining interest rate cuts are “largely priced in” to current exchange levels, limiting the scope for policy-driven downside in the currency.

Detailed 2026 EUR/PLN and USD/PLN Projections

The institution reaffirmed its view for modestly stable EUR/PLN and USD/PLN levels across 2026, with only slight variations between quarters.

Macro Backdrop and External Drivers

UBS highlighted Poland’s “robust growth outlook” as a key fundamental pillar for the currency. The bank also pointed to the zloty’s carry advantage relative to the euro as an additional factor underpinning demand.

Further support, according to UBS, is expected from the external environment, with the bank stating that the zloty should benefit from “an acceleration in German economic growth in the coming quarters.”