Key Moments
- Deckers Outdoor shares fell 3.8% in premarket trading on Tuesday after two analyst downgrades.
- Baird cut its rating to Neutral after a roughly 35% rebound since November left less than 20% upside.
- Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Underweight, citing cracks in HOKA’s total addressable market and heavier discounting.
Analyst Moves Pressure Deckers Stock
Investing.com — Deckers Outdoor shares came under pressure on Tuesday, sliding 3.8% in premarket trading. The move followed rating downgrades from two research firms.
Both analysts pointed to softer demand momentum. In addition, they flagged limited near-term upside after a strong rally in the stock.
Baird Downgrades $DECK to Neutral from Outperform, PT $125
Analyst comments: "We remain comfortable in DECK's ability to achieve or exceed our F2026E EPS of $6.39 (+0.9%; consensus $6.41), and shares look undervalued to us on a longer-run basis, considering the current NTM P/E… pic.twitter.com/WLGQytMlCE
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) January 7, 2026
Baird Cuts Rating After Strong Rally
Baird analyst Jonathan Komp downgraded Deckers to Neutral after the shares gained about 35% since November.
As a result, Komp said he now sees “a lower degree of confidence in the upside potential” over the next few quarters.
He added that Deckers offers less than 20% upside to Baird’s price targets. Moreover, he argued the stock faces tougher positioning as investors rotate toward higher-beta names ahead of what Baird expects to be a more supportive macro backdrop in 2026.
Overall, Baird said the downgrade reflects a less attractive risk-reward profile. Still, the firm remains constructive on the broader sector.
| Firm | Analyst | New Rating | Key Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | Jonathan Komp | Neutral | Limited upside after a 35% rebound; rotation toward higher-beta stocks |
| Piper Sandler | Anna Andreeva | Underweight | HOKA TAM concerns, rising discounting, and potential margin pressure |
Piper Sandler Flags HOKA and Channel Risks
Meanwhile, Piper Sandler also turned more cautious. Analyst Anna Andreeva downgraded Deckers to Underweight.
She pointed to “cracks in the HOKA TAM” and said the company has leaned more on discounting for both HOKA and UGG since the summer.
According to Andreeva, heavier promotions risk becoming an unhealthy customer acquisition tool. They may also increase tension between direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels.
“DECK’s profitability sits well above athletic peers,” Andreeva wrote. However, she warned margins could reset as the company continues to invest, especially in HOKA’s global brand expansion.
Demand Normalization and Product Concentration Concerns
In addition, Andreeva highlighted signs of normalization across the athletic footwear cycle.
She noted that casual styles are returning to more typical growth rates after a period of outsized expansion.
At the same time, she said HOKA remains heavily concentrated in max-cushion running. The brand, in her view, lacks meaningful diversification beyond that category.
Finally, Andreeva argued that refreshing two key HOKA models just one year after their prior launches suggests the total addressable market may be smaller than bullish investors expect.
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