Key Moments
- Morgan Stanley projects gold will reach $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of this year, surpassing last year’s record highs.
- Gold ended 2025 up 64% at a record high of $4,549.71/oz, while silver jumped 147% amid what the bank calls a peak deficit year.
- The bank favors aluminum and copper in the base metals complex and highlights ongoing supply disruption risks in nickel.
Gold Outlook Lifted on Policy and Safe-Haven Demand
Jan 6 (Reuters) – Morgan Stanley has projected that gold prices will climb to $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of this year, a level that would push the metal beyond last year’s record highs. The bank attributed its bullish view to declining interest rates, a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, and continued accumulation by central banks and investment funds.
In a note dated January 5, the bank also said that events in Venezuela over the weekend were expected to draw additional safe-haven flows into gold. However, it did not include those developments as a direct driver of its $4,800 per ounce price target.
Spot bullion reached an all-time high of $4,549.71 per ounce on December 26 and finished 2025 with a 64% gain, marking its strongest calendar-year performance since 1979. [GOL/]
Safe-Haven Role in Times of Stress
Market participants commonly regard gold as a store of value during periods of economic and geopolitical instability. The metal is also considered to be relatively more attractive when interest rates are low, as the absence of yield becomes less of a financial drawback in such an environment.
Silver: Peak Deficit and Regulatory Support
Turning to silver, Morgan Stanley said that 2025 represented peak deficit for the market. The bank added that new export license requirements in China, which have been in force since the start of this year, have increased the “upside risk for silver”.
Silver delivered its strongest annual performance in 2025, jumping 147% on the back of growing industrial use, heightened appetite from investors, and what the bank described as a structural deficit in the market.
Base Metals: Preference for Aluminum and Copper
Within the base metals complex, Morgan Stanley said it preferred aluminum and copper, citing constrained supply conditions alongside rising demand for both metals.
“Aluminium supply is constrained everywhere except Indonesia, while the rising Midwest Premium suggests some U.S. buying may be returning,” the note said.
The bank also noted that U.S. copper imports have increased, helping to keep other regional markets tight, and that the elevated level of copper supply disruptions seen in 2025 was persisting into 2026.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange reached a high of $13,387.50 on Tuesday. [MET/L]
Nickel Supported by Supply Risks
Morgan Stanley further highlighted strength in the nickel market, which it said is underpinned by supply disruption risks in Indonesia. At the same time, the bank cautioned that a significant portion of this risk may already be reflected in prices.
Nickel advanced 5.8% to $17,980 a ton on Tuesday, its highest level since October 8, 2024.
Key Price Levels and Performance Snapshot
| Metal | Recent Price / Peak | Time Reference | Performance / Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,549.71/oz | Record high on December 26 | Ended 2025 with a 64% annual gain; Morgan Stanley forecasts $4,800/oz by Q4 this year |
| Silver | Not specified | 2025 full year | Recorded strongest annual gain in 2025, rising 147%, with 2025 described as peak deficit |
| Copper (3-month LME) | $13,387.50 | Peak on Tuesday | Supported by tight markets and ongoing supply disruptions from 2025 into 2026 |
| Nickel | $17,980/ton | Tuesday | Up 5.8%, hitting highest level since October 8, 2024, amid supply disruption risk in Indonesia |
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