Key Moments
- Oil futures in Europe rose about 0.2% on Tuesday after a turbulent session driven by geopolitical tensions.
- Traders assessed the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the potential opening of the country’s oil sector.
- Analysts warned that a peaceful leadership transition in Venezuela seemed unlikely, keeping short-term supply disruption risks high.
Prices Edge Up as Volatility Eases
Investing.com – Oil prices gained in European trading on Tuesday as volatility eased. Market participants reassessed the impact of the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Crude futures finished Monday higher after a sharp intraday swing. Traders added a larger geopolitical risk premium, but uncertainty remained about how U.S. control of Venezuela’s oil sector would affect global markets.
Profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on crude benchmarks on Tuesday. The market also faced its steepest annual loss in five years in 2025, alongside worries about a potential supply surplus in 2026.
Oil Market Snapshot
By 04:58 ET (09:58 GMT), key benchmarks moved slightly higher:
| Contract | Delivery Month | Move | Price | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude futures | March | +0.2% | $61.89 per barrel | 04:58 ET (09:58 GMT) |
| West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures | – | +0.2% | $58.42 per barrel | 04:58 ET (09:58 GMT) |
Venezuela’s Political Shift Adds Uncertainty
Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, assumed the role of interim president on Monday. She voiced support for Maduro, but her stance on the U.S. operation remained unclear.
U.S. intelligence reportedly saw Rodriguez as the best candidate to lead a temporary administration.
Also on Monday, Maduro pleaded not guilty to U.S. narcotics charges. He appeared in a New York courtroom just days after his capture in Caracas, asserting his innocence and claiming he remained Venezuela’s president.
President Donald Trump said Maduro’s capture occurred without Congressional approval. Trump announced the U.S. would take temporary control of Venezuela and open its oil industry, inviting American energy firms to invest.
Leadership Transition Seen as Critical for Oil Outlook
Analysts suggested that if U.S. producers could enter Venezuela’s oil sector, global supply might rise, putting downward pressure on crude prices.
However, this depends on a smooth political handover and removal of U.S. sanctions. Analysts expect changes to be gradual due to the capital required to modernize aging oil infrastructure.
ANZ analysts noted that a peaceful transition seemed unlikely, predicting ongoing political turbulence.
“The U.S. action in Venezuela is likely to keep supply disruption risks elevated in the short term,” ANZ said in a note.
Continued instability may also discourage foreign investment, as Trump has not outlined how the U.S. plans to manage the country.
Analysts concluded that immediate changes in Venezuelan oil exports could remain limited, with U.S. sanctions staying in place for now.
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