UBS Highlights Five Athletic Footwear Winners After Key Industry Showcase

Key Moments

Market Trends From “The Running Event”

A UBS research note based on observations from “The Running Event” trade show in San Antonio, Texas pointed to increasing strength across athletic footwear, led by the running category. Max-cushion products remained a dominant theme, while trail running appeared as a growing opportunity, with brands allocating more display space and attention to this segment.

UBS Focus List: Key Athletic Footwear Names

UBS highlighted five companies it sees as well aligned with these trends and positioned to gain share in performance and specialty running channels.

On Holding: Expanding Presence in Run Specialty

UBS expects On Holding to keep taking market share despite ongoing skepticism around its growth trajectory. At the trade show, the company showcased multiple new products, with particular interest around the Lightspray Cloudmonster 3 Hyper shoe. That model was described as one of the event’s most popular offerings and brings Lightspray technology to everyday runners, which UBS views as a meaningful commercial opportunity.

On also invested in an interactive booth experience, allowing retailers to test shoes on treadmills. UBS indicated this setup enhanced engagement and reinforced the brand’s standing in the Run Specialty channel.

Salomon: Underappreciated Performance Upside

UBS anticipates Salomon’s strong business momentum to extend into 2026. The brand has already benefited from the outdoor sneaker trend, but UBS suggested that its potential within higher-performance footwear may not be fully reflected as trail running gains more consumer interest.

Salomon emphasized its gravel running initiative, combining elements of road and trail footwear. The Aero Glide 4, featuring a one-handed easy-lacing system, was highlighted as a key example of this approach. In addition, refreshed color palettes for the Aero Blaze line are expected to bolster the brand’s lifestyle relevance.

Deckers Outdoor: Hoka Growth Drivers Into 2026

UBS sees room for Hoka, a Deckers Outdoor brand, to re-accelerate in 2026 despite market concerns that its rapid growth phase might have peaked. Retail feedback at the trade show indicated enthusiasm for the Clifton 11 and its new color stories planned for a Fall 2026 rollout.

Hoka is not planning a new Bondi version for 2026, with the company instead spacing out the timing of launches across its two core franchises. The trail assortment at the event included the Stinson 8, Speedgoat 7, Hike GTZX, and Transport 2 lines, while apparel exposure remained limited as Hoka maintained a primary focus on footwear.

Deckers Outdoor: Recent Performance and Analyst Views

Deckers Outdoor recently reported second-quarter results showing wholesale revenue growth of 13% and a 29% increase in international sales, offset by a 2% decline in U.S. revenue. Following the release, several research firms adjusted their price targets. UBS reiterated its Buy rating, pointing to continued growth potential at both Hoka and UGG.

Wolverine World Wide: Innovation at Saucony and Merrell

Wolverine World Wide is prioritizing product innovation at its largest banners, Saucony and Merrell, with UBS citing a strong 2026 pipeline.

Saucony is broadening its offering for everyday runners through the Endorphin Elite 3, Endorphin Azura, and Paramount Max platforms, while simultaneously entering trail running more aggressively with new introductions such as the Peregrine 16.

Merrell is using its MTL (Merrell Test Lab) to design products that combine performance with enhanced style. The Agility Peak 6 and MTL SpeedArc Peak were highlighted as examples aimed at consumers who want both function and design appeal.

Wolverine World Wide: Financial Update and Leadership Change

Wolverine World Wide reported third-quarter revenue of $470.3 million, coming in above consensus expectations. Within that, Saucony and Merrell delivered growth of 24.9% and 3.5%, respectively. The company also named Justin Cupps as President of its Work Group business.

Birkenstock: Capitalizing on Recovery Footwear Demand

UBS views Birkenstock as well placed within the running ecosystem in its role as a recovery footwear provider. At the trade show, the company spotlighted traditional clog silhouettes, including the Boston line, underscoring the supportive footbed intended to aid runner recovery.

Birkenstock also introduced features such as rubber outsoles aimed at outdoor use. UBS expects these enhancements to stimulate interest and support shelf-space gains at Athletic Specialty retailers, including run-focused shops.

Birkenstock: Results and Analyst Reactions

Birkenstock reported fourth-quarter constant currency revenue growth of 20%, beating analyst projections. Adjusted EBITDA for the period was €147 million.

Following the earnings report, analyst opinions were mixed. Goldman Sachs and UBS reaffirmed Buy ratings, while Williams Trading downgraded the stock to Hold.