Key Moments
- Analysts at New Street Research and UBS see Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) fourth-quarter deliveries coming in below the roughly 440,000 consensus estimate.
- U.S. demand is expected to weaken sharply after the expiration of a $7,500 EV tax credit, with one analyst projecting U.S. deliveries down about 75,000 units quarter-on-quarter.
- China and Europe are expected to post sequential delivery growth, but year-on-year declines are still anticipated in both regions.
Analysts Project Q4 Deliveries Below Market Expectations
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is anticipated to miss Wall Street’s fourth-quarter delivery forecasts, with multiple analysts citing a drop-off in U.S. demand following the end of key incentives and only moderate strength in other major markets.
New Street Research estimates that Tesla will deliver between 415,000 and 435,000 vehicles in the quarter, below a consensus forecast of around 440,000. UBS analyst Joseph Spak is even more cautious, projecting total fourth-quarter deliveries of 415,000 vehicles, which he says is around 5% below Visible Alpha consensus.
U.S. Market Hit by Expiring Subsidies
New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu links the weaker outlook to what he describes as “pull-forwards of 3Q,” tied to the expiration of U.S. subsidies at the end of September. He identifies the U.S. as the primary source of softness and expects U.S. deliveries to fall by about 75,000 units quarter-on-quarter, characterizing the environment as a “U.S. air-pocket” as volumes revert after a subsidy-fueled surge in the prior period.
UBS’s Spak likewise highlights the impact of the U.S. incentive change, pointing to the lapse of the $7,500 consumer EV tax credit as a major headwind. He notes that U.S. sales could decline more than 35% quarter-on-quarter and be down 25% year-on-year.
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Regional Delivery Trends Outside the U.S.
Analysts are relatively more constructive on Tesla’s performance outside the U.S., though year-on-year comparisons remain challenging in key markets.
New Street Research expects deliveries in China and Europe to rise by around 10% sequentially, which it sees as broadly in line with normal seasonal patterns. However, UBS cautions that, despite quarter-on-quarter improvement, Europe is still likely to show a year-on-year decline.
Spak wrote: “We expect Europe is improved q/q. Through the first 2 months of the quarter, deliveries in Europe’s top 8 markets are up ~31% q/q. We expect the region to end around ~70k deliveries for the quarter. This would likely be down ~15% y/y.”
In China, Spak expects fourth-quarter deliveries to increase modestly versus the prior quarter but says they could still be down as much as 10% year-on-year, even though December is typically the strongest month for the region.
The rest of the world is projected to cool after a particularly robust third quarter. New Street Research forecasts a quarter-on-quarter decline following what it calls outsized strength in markets such as South Korea and Turkey, although overall volumes are still expected to be higher year-on-year as Tesla expands internationally.
UBS also points to weaker activity in Turkey after a tax benefit ended, along with softer momentum in South Korea.
Summary of Key Delivery Forecasts
| Source | Metric | Q4 View / Change | Additional Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Street Research | Global deliveries | 415,000 – 435,000 | Below consensus of around 440,000 |
| UBS (Joseph Spak) | Global deliveries | 415,000 | About 5% below Visible Alpha consensus |
| New Street Research | U.S. deliveries | -75,000 q/q (expected) | Described as a “U.S. air-pocket” after subsidy-driven strength |
| UBS | U.S. sales | >35% down q/q; 25% down y/y (expected) | Linked to expiration of $7,500 consumer EV tax credit |
| New Street Research | China & Europe deliveries | ~10% up q/q (expected) | Seen as consistent with typical seasonality |
| UBS | Europe deliveries | ~70,000 for Q4 (expected) | Up ~31% q/q through first 2 months; likely ~15% down y/y |
| UBS | China deliveries | Modest increase q/q (expected) | Potentially up to 10% down y/y |
Profitability Outlook and Investor Focus
Lower-than-expected deliveries are also projected to weigh on Tesla’s margins. Ferragu forecasts a 2.3 percentage point sequential decline in gross margin, which he estimates would place the figure about 2.2 percentage points below consensus expectations.
Despite these near-term operational pressures, some analysts suggest that investor attention may be shifting away from quarterly delivery figures. As Spak put it: “The question increasingly becomes: does the market no longer care about deliveries and only robo-taxi and Optimus developments?”
Spak expects Tesla to release its fourth-quarter delivery numbers on January 2.
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