Key Moments
- Brent crude futures edged down to $62.01 per barrel, while U.S. WTI slipped to $57.92 after gains of more than 2% in the previous session.
- Meanwhile, investors assessed supply risks tied to possible U.S. sales of seized Venezuelan crude and fresh attacks in the Black Sea region.
- At the same time, analysts said oil markets should remain well supplied in early 2026, even if Venezuelan exports fall sharply.
Market Snapshot
Oil prices were little changed during Asian trading on Tuesday. This followed a strong rally in the prior session. However, investors remained cautious as they weighed supply risks against expectations for ample inventories.
| Contract | Price | Move | Percentage Change | Time (GMT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude futures | $62.01 per barrel | -$0.06 | -0.1% | 0440 |
| U.S. WTI crude | $57.92 per barrel | -$0.09 | -0.16% | 0440 |
By 0440 GMT, Brent crude eased by 6 cents to $62.01 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 9 cents to $57.92 per barrel.
These modest declines followed a strong session on Monday. Brent posted its largest daily gain in two months. At the same time, WTI recorded its biggest rise since mid-November.
Analyst Views on Market Dynamics
According to Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova, oil markets are entering the final weeks of 2025 with prices under pressure. She noted that markets remain stuck between bearish fundamentals and brief bullish headlines.
While geopolitical events have supported prices at times, weak demand has capped gains. In addition, abundant supply has weighed on sentiment. As a result, Sachdeva said the broader trend remains soft.
Meanwhile, traders stayed cautious as they balanced geopolitical risks against expectations for strong output in early 2026. Therefore, the market could react quickly to any sustained supply disruption.
Venezuelan Crude and U.S. Policy Signals
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States could keep or sell seized Venezuelan crude. This follows recent interceptions off Venezuela’s coast. Moreover, the move is part of broader efforts to restrict sanctioned oil flows.
Barclays addressed the potential impact in a note released Monday. The bank said that even a sharp drop in Venezuelan exports would not immediately tighten the market. As a result, oil supplies should remain comfortable in the first half of 2026.
However, Barclays also warned that the global surplus is expected to narrow later in the year. Specifically, it projected a surplus of 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. Prolonged disruptions could further draw down inventories.
Escalating Risks in the Black Sea
At the same time, rising military activity around the Black Sea added fresh uncertainty. The region remains critical for oil shipments from both Russia and Ukraine.
Late on Monday, Russian forces struck Ukraine’s port city of Odesa. The attack damaged port infrastructure and a vessel. Notably, it marked the second strike on the area within a single day.
Meanwhile, officials in Russia’s Krasnodar region reported Ukrainian drone attacks on ships and port facilities. These strikes also triggered a fire in a nearby village.
In addition, Ukraine has continued targeting Russia’s maritime network. The focus remains on shadow-fleet tankers that attempt to bypass sanctions tied to the ongoing war.
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