Key Moments
- Global coal demand is projected to rise 0.5% in 2025, reaching a record 8.85 billion metric tons, according to the IEA’s Coal 2025 report.
- The IEA expects worldwide coal consumption to plateau and then gradually decline through 2030, as renewables, nuclear, and natural gas gain share.
- China remains the key swing factor, consuming 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined and strongly influencing the global outlook.
IEA Projects Peak in Coal Demand
LONDON, Dec 17 (Reuters) – Worldwide coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2025. However, it is expected to ease by 2030 as alternative energy sources increasingly replace coal in power generation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
The agency emphasized that reducing reliance on coal is central to meeting international climate goals. Meanwhile, coal remains the dominant source of electricity production in many countries.
In its Coal 2025 report, the IEA projected that global coal demand will rise by 0.5% in 2025, reaching a record 8.85 billion metric tons.
“Looking ahead, we observe that global coal demand will plateau and then start a slow decline through the end of the decade,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA director of Energy Markets and Security, during a press briefing.
Outlook to 2030 and Regional Dynamics
The IEA noted that the overall forecast has changed little compared with last year’s projections. However, underlying regional trends in 2025 have shifted noticeably.
India’s coal consumption fell in 2025. This marks only the third annual decline in five decades and is linked to intense monsoon conditions, which boosted hydropower output and reduced overall electricity demand.
In contrast, coal use in the United States increased. This rise was supported by higher natural gas prices and an executive order signed by President Donald Trump this year. The order aims to preserve coal-fired power plants that might otherwise close and to support domestic coal production.
China, the world’s largest coal consumer, saw largely stable demand this year. However, the IEA expects Chinese coal use to gradually decrease by 2030 as renewable energy capacity expands.
China’s Central Role in Coal Markets
The IEA cautioned that the global trajectory could diverge from the baseline scenario. For example, stronger-than-expected growth in electricity demand or slower renewable energy expansion in China could push coal consumption above current forecasts.
“China… which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined, is the main driver of global coal trends,” Sadamori said.
Key Forecast Figures
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Global coal demand in 2025 | 8.85 billion metric tons | Record level projected in IEA Coal 2025 report |
| Growth rate in 2025 | 0.5% | Year-on-year increase in global coal demand |
| China’s relative coal use | 30% more than rest of world combined | Described by IEA as main driver of global coal trends |
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