Key Moments
- Brent crude futures were $60.92 per barrel and U.S. WTI $57.23 per barrel, both slightly lower in intraday trading.
- Venezuela’s oil exports have fallen sharply after a U.S. tanker seizure and new sanctions on shipping entities.
- JPMorgan Commodities Research projects global oil supply will grow three times faster than demand through 2026, widening expected surpluses from 2025-2027.
Prices Steady After Heavy Weekly Losses
Oil benchmarks remained mostly unchanged on Monday. Investors balanced rising geopolitical risks against persistent concerns over a potential supply surplus and ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
By 1301 GMT in London, Brent crude futures fell 20 cents, or 0.33%, to $60.92 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 21 cents, or 0.37%, to $57.23 a barrel.
Both benchmarks dropped more than 4% last week, pressured by forecasts that the global oil market could tip into surplus in 2026.
| Contract | Price | Move | Percent Change | Time (GMT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude futures | $60.92 per barrel | – $0.20 | – 0.33% | 1301 |
| U.S. WTI crude | $57.23 per barrel | – $0.21 | – 0.37% | 1301 |
PVM analyst John Evans said last week’s slide could have been worse if tensions between Washington and Caracas had not intensified. “The grind lower in oil prices and the achieving of month-to-date lows across the major futures complex last week might have seen more negative pricing if it were not for the upping of the ante by the United States regarding Venezuela,” he explained.
Venezuelan Exports Hit by U.S. Actions
Venezuela’s crude shipments dropped sharply after the U.S. seized a tanker and imposed additional sanctions on shipping firms and vessels transporting its oil, according to shipping data and maritime sources.
Traders are watching closely. Reuters reported that the U.S. plans to intercept more vessels carrying Venezuelan oil. This action adds pressure on President Nicolas Maduro.
Russia-Ukraine Peace Efforts and Supply Outlook
Energy markets also focused on the possibility of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered to drop NATO aspirations during five hours of talks with U.S. envoys in Berlin. Discussions were scheduled to resume Monday.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff stated, “a lot of progress was made,” but provided no further details. If finalized, a deal could allow increased Russian oil exports, currently limited by Western sanctions.
Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute, added: “Peace talks have swung between optimism and caution, while tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. are escalating, raising concerns about supply disruptions.”
Growing Concerns Over Future Surplus
Structural oversupply expectations continued to weigh on market sentiment. Rising projections of future surpluses reinforced the view that the market may remain well supplied in the coming years.
JPMorgan Commodities Research reported on Saturday that 2025 oil surpluses are expected to widen further into 2026 and 2027. They project that global supply will outpace demand, growing at three times the rate of demand through 2026.
The report also warned that the anticipated imbalance could further depress prices unless offset by production cuts or unexpected supply disruptions.
($1 = 80.0455 roubles)
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