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Key Moments

  • The United States will allow exports of Nvidia’s H200 AI processors to China. These shipments will face a 25% fee, President Donald Trump said.
  • Nvidia’s share price rose 3% during the day and an additional 2% in after-hours trading following reports and Trump’s announcement.
  • The move has drawn sharp criticism from some U.S. lawmakers, who argue it risks strengthening China’s military and technology sector.

Policy Shift on AI Chip Exports

The United States will permit Nvidia’s H200 processors, the company’s second-most powerful AI chips, to be exported to China. Trump confirmed that these shipments will face a 25% fee.

The announcement follows internal U.S. deliberations over whether Nvidia and its competitors should maintain their technological edge by continuing to sell advanced AI chips to China or restrict shipments altogether. At the same time, Beijing has instructed domestic companies to avoid U.S. technology, creating uncertainty about whether the decision will result in significant new orders.

Trump disclosed the decision on Truth Social, stating that he had informed Chinese President Xi Jinping, and that Xi “responded positively.” He added that the U.S. Commerce Department is working on the details and that a similar framework would extend to other AI chip manufacturers such as Advanced Micro Devices and Intel.

According to Trump’s post, the fee to be collected is “$25%”, a figure a White House official confirmed means 25%, compared with a 15% rate that had been floated in August.

Market Reaction and Company Responses

Nvidia’s stock rose 3% during regular trading after the Semafor report. It climbed another 2% in after-hours trading once Trump confirmed the policy change.

In a statement, Nvidia said: “Offering H200 to approved commercial customers, vetted by the Department of Commerce, strikes a thoughtful balance that is great for America.”

Intel declined to comment. The U.S. Commerce Department, which manages export controls, and AMD did not respond to requests for comment.

Structure of the Fee and Export Process

A White House official said the 25% fee will be collected as an import tax when the chips are shipped from Taiwan, where they are manufactured, to the United States. Once in the U.S., the chips will undergo a security review by U.S. officials before being re-exported to China.

Trump did not specify the number of H200 units that will be allowed to ship or detail the full conditions attached, saying only that the exports will proceed “under conditions that allow for continued strong National Security.”

Administration officials view the decision as a middle-ground approach, according to a person familiar with the matter. On one side is a complete ban on shipping Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell chips to China, which Trump has not permitted; on the other is a scenario in which no U.S. chips are sold into China, which officials believe would support Huawei’s efforts to expand AI chip sales in the Chinese market.

Nvidia’s Product Line and Performance Gap

Trump wrote on Truth Social: “We will protect National Security, create American Jobs, and keep America’s lead in AI. NVIDIA’s U.S. Customers are already moving forward with their incredible, highly advanced Blackwell chips, and soon, Rubin, neither of which are part of this deal.”

A report released on Sunday by the Institute for Progress (IFP), a non-partisan think tank, stated that the H200 is nearly six times as powerful as the H20, which is currently the most advanced AI chip that can legally be sold to China after the Trump administration reversed a brief ban earlier this year.

The IFP report said the Blackwell chip used by U.S. AI firms is about 1.5 times faster than H200 chips for AI training workloads and five times faster for inference tasks, where AI models are deployed in real-world applications. Nvidia’s own research has suggested that Blackwell can be 10 times faster than H200 for certain use cases.

Reactions in Washington and Beijing

The decision has sparked criticism from some lawmakers who worry about national security implications. Several Democratic senators called Trump’s move a “colossal economic and national security failure” that they say will benefit China’s industrial base and military.

Republican Representative John Moolenaar, chair of the House China Select Committee, said China may use the chips to expand military capabilities and surveillance systems. He warned that Chinese firms could copy Nvidia’s technology and undercut the company in the future.

Eric Hirschhorn, a former senior Commerce Department official under the Obama administration, criticized the decision, saying: “It’s a terrible mistake to trade off national security for advantages in trade. It cuts against the consistent policies of Democratic and Republican administrations alike not to assist China’s military modernization.”

Asked about the U.S. approval, China’s foreign ministry said that China believes it should work with the United States to achieve mutual benefits.

Chinese Policy Toward Nvidia and Domestic AI Chips

In recent months, Chinese authorities have cautioned local technology firms against purchasing Nvidia’s downgraded chips for the Chinese market – the H20, RTX 6000D and L20 – according to two sources. These products had been modified to comply with earlier U.S. export restrictions.

George Chen, a partner at consultancy The Asia Group, said he expects Chinese regulators to take a less confrontational stance toward Nvidia following Trump’s comments on Xi’s reaction, particularly as both sides seek to stabilize U.S.-China relations. He added that the H200 is significantly more valuable to China than the H20. “I expect state media to gradually change their narrative and be more welcoming to Nvidia,” he said.

Bo Zhengyuan, a political analyst at consultancy Plenum, said he also anticipates a more cautious approach from Beijing when it comes to direct intervention. “But on a longer horizon, we don’t know how long this window can last. China will not be disturbed by this easing, and it will remain ultra-focused on gaining advanced chip-making capability of its own,” he said.

China’s domestic AI chip landscape currently includes Huawei Technologies as a major player, alongside smaller firms such as Cambricon and Moore Threads.

Comparative Performance Snapshot

ChipMarket/StatusRelative Performance (per IFP/Nvidia, where stated)Export Status to China (as described)
H200Nvidia AI processorAlmost 6x more powerful than H20Now allowed for export to China with 25% U.S. fee and security review
H20Nvidia downgraded AI chip for ChinaBaseline in IFP comparisonLegally exportable; previously subject to a short-lived ban; under Chinese regulatory caution
BlackwellTop-end Nvidia AI chip used by U.S. firmsAbout 1.5x faster than H200 for training; 5x faster for inference; up to 10x faster for some tasks per Nvidia researchNot included in the current export deal to China
RubinFuture Nvidia product referenced by TrumpNot quantifiedNot part of the deal, per Trump
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