Key Moments
- Morgan Stanley projects a 590,000-ton copper market deficit next year, driven by supply constraints and demand trends.
- The bank holds a 2026 base case copper price forecast of $10,650 per ton, with a bull case of $12,780 per ton.
- Copper is currently trading at $11,620.50, with Morgan Stanley highlighting both upside and downside risks to its outlook.
Outlook Supported by Supply Constraints and Demand Shifts
Investing.com – Morgan Stanley expects copper prices to remain firmly underpinned, citing ongoing supply challenges and indications of renewed U.S. import demand, according to a recent research note from the investment bank.
The report highlights robust demand growth from energy storage systems (ESS) and sustained expansion in data center construction. According to Morgan Stanley, these factors could help compensate for softness in several Chinese end-use segments, which the bank continues to watch closely for their sensitivity to price movements.
Copper is set for a historic shortage next year:
The copper market is expected to face its most severe deficit in 22 years in 2026, at -590,000 tons, according to Morgan Stanley.
The deficit is expected to widen by 2029 to a whopping -1.1 million tons.
This comes as global… pic.twitter.com/j8CZ7Fb4qe
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 10, 2025
Deficit Projections and Price Scenarios
Based on its current modeling, Morgan Stanley anticipates that these market forces are likely to deepen the copper supply shortfall next year. The bank is projecting a deficit of 590,000 tons in the copper market.
Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley is maintaining its 2026 base case forecast for copper at $10,650 per ton. It also outlines a more optimistic bull case scenario in which prices could reach $12,780 per ton. The bank notes that existing market conditions create upside risks to both of these projections.
At the time of the note, copper is trading at $11,620.50.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected copper market deficit (next year) | 590,000 tons |
| 2026 base case copper price forecast | $10,650 per ton |
| 2026 bull case copper price forecast | $12,780 per ton |
| Current copper price | $11,620.50 |
Key Risk: U.S. Tariff Policy on Refined Copper
Morgan Stanley also flags a notable downside risk to its constructive price view. The bank cautions that copper prices could face pressure if the United States were to “unequivocally rule out” the possibility of tariffs on refined copper.
According to the research note, such a policy stance could prompt the release of surplus refined metal that has been stockpiled in anticipation of potential U.S. tariff measures, thereby easing some of the current tightness in the market.
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