Key Moments
- Brent crude traded at $63.02 and U.S. WTI at $59.36 as the market monitored Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
- A Ukrainian attack on the Druzhba pipeline did not interrupt oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia, according to the operator and Hungary’s oil and gas company.
- Fitch Ratings reduced its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions, citing expectations that production growth will exceed demand.
Prices Steady as Geopolitics Dominate Trading
Oil benchmarks were little changed on Thursday, with investors weighing continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities against signs of ample supply and rising inventories.
By 1326 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 35 cents, or 0.6%, at $63.02. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained 41 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.36.
Market attention remained centered on developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and their implications for oil flows, while stalled efforts to reach a peace agreement appeared to support prices.
Druzhba Pipeline Hit, But Flows Remain Intact
Ukraine struck the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region, a Ukrainian intelligence source said on Wednesday. It was the fifth attack on the conduit. The pipeline carries Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia.
Despite the strike, the pipeline operator and Hungary’s oil and gas company said the system continued to ship oil normally.
Impact of Drone Campaign on Russian Refining
Consultancy Kpler described an evolution in Ukraine’s targeting of Russian energy assets.
“Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase,” consultancy Kpler said in a research report.
“This has pushed Russian refining throughput down to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, a 335,000 bpd year-on-year decline, with gasoline hit hardest and gasoil output also materially weaker,” the report added.
Peace Talks Stall, Supporting Price Floor
Investor sentiment was also influenced by signs that diplomatic efforts to end the conflict were not yielding concrete progress. The belief that a peace plan was losing momentum supported crude prices. U.S. representatives left talks with the Kremlin without meaningful progress toward ending the war.
“War and politics, balanced against comfortable stocks, expected supply surplus, and OPEC’s market-share strategy, keep Brent in the $60–$70 range for now,” said PVM analysts.
Earlier, hopes for a resolution to the conflict pushed prices lower. Traders prepared for the possibility that a deal would allow more Russian barrels to return to an already oversupplied market.
U.S. Inventory Data Signals Ample Supply
Fresh EIA data showed a build in U.S. crude and product stocks. Refiners increased activity, which contributed to the rise.
| Indicator | Latest Reading | Market Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| Crude inventories (week ended November 28) | +574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels | 821,000-barrel draw (Reuters poll) |
The EIA said crude stocks rose by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week to November 28. Analysts had expected an 821,000-barrel draw. The agency added that crude and fuel inventories increased because refinery runs climbed.
Fitch Lowers Medium-Term Oil Price Assumptions
On Thursday, Fitch Ratings cut its oil price assumptions for 2025–2027. The agency said the change reflected a likely market oversupply and production growth expected to outpace demand.
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