Crude Oil Advances as OPEC+ Holds Output Line and Geopolitical Risks Mount

Key Moments

Oil Futures Edge Higher

Oil prices moved up on Monday, supported by OPEC+’s decision to keep production unchanged in the first quarter and by renewed concerns over potential supply disruptions driven by geopolitical developments.

As of 08:20 ET (13:20 GMT), Brent oil futures for March delivery were up 1.0% at $62.58 per barrel, while the February Brent contract also climbed 1.0% to $63.01 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 1.0% to $59.11 per barrel.

Oil prices spike on supply stability signal: Brent and the US WTI gained nearly 2%

Markets caution as surplus risk lurks

OPEC+ keeps oil production unchanged through March 2026@samikshaa3 brings you more pic.twitter.com/Ob3INAD8tz

— WION (@WIONews) December 1, 2025

OPEC+ Extends Production Pause and Plans Capacity Review

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday reiterated that it will keep production increases on hold through the first quarter of next year, preserving roughly 3.24 million barrels per day in voluntary output cuts.

The alliance indicated it is proceeding carefully in light of uneven demand patterns and its view of a possible crude oversupply in 2026. In addition, the group agreed to a framework for assessing member countries’ maximum production capacities between January and September of next year, a process intended to underpin baseline quota setting for 2027.

“This could certainly lead to disagreement among members, with countries keen to secure higher baselines,” ING analysts said in a note.

Heightened Risk Around Venezuelan Exports

Traders were also monitoring risks tied to political comments from U.S. President Donald Trump concerning Venezuela; additionally, his remarks introduced fresh uncertainty into the outlook. Trump said he is weighing the option of closing airspace over the country.

“This escalation between the U.S. and Venezuela has the U.S. carrying out strikes on boats it claims are carrying drugs, while also building its military presence nearby,” ING analysts said. “Venezuela exports around 800,000 barrels per day, of which most of the crude oil will head to China. Clearly, any further escalation puts this supply at risk.”

Attacks Hit Russian-Linked Energy Infrastructure

Crude prices also found backing from disruptions tied to attacks against Russian energy assets over the weekend, which affected export flows.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which plays a key role in transporting Kazakh and Russian crude through the Black Sea, reported that it had halted loadings after a naval drone strike inflicted substantial damage on a mooring point at its Novorossiysk terminal.

“Shipments from the CPC terminal have averaged around 1.48m b/d so far this year, up roughly 200k b/d from last year, as the expansion of the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan supported exports,” ING analysts added.