On Tuesday (in GMT terms) gold for delivery in February 2017 traded within the range of $1,182.6-$1,197.7. Futures closed at $1,190.8, edging down 0.25% compared to Monday’s close. It has been the 209th drop in the past 390 trading days. The precious metal has increased its slump to 6.47% so far during the current month, after losing 3.34% in October.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for delivery in February 2017 were edging down 0.14% on Wednesday to trade at $1,189.1 per troy ounce. The precious metal went up as high as $1,196.8 during early Asian trade, while the current daily low was at $1,188.1 per troy ounce, recorded during the early phase of the European trading session.
The US Dollar Index, a gauge reflecting the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of 6 other major currencies, was inching up 0.05% on the day at a level of 101.03, after going up as high as 101.26 earlier. Yesterday the index retreated for a third straight trading day, closing at 100.98. The gauge has pared its advance to 2.64% so far in November, following a 3.18% surge in October.
Today gold trading may be strongly influenced by the US new job growth report by ADP, which serves as a reliable predictor of the official government employment data. Employers in the US non-farm private sector probably added 165 000 new jobs during November, according to the median estimate by experts, following 147 000 new positions added in October. The latter has been the lowest job growth since May. In case new job growth was faster than expected in November, this would have a moderate-to-strong bullish effect on the US dollar and a moderate-to-strong bearish effect on gold. The official figure is scheduled to be released at 13:15 GMT.
A separate report may show that pending home sales in the United States rose 0.4% in October from a month ago, according to the median estimate by experts. In September, contracts to buy previously owned homes were 1.5% more, exceeding market expectations, which has been the sharpest monthly increase since April. In case pending home sales rose at a faster pace than anticipated in October, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar. The National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) will report on the official index performance at 15:00 GMT.
Additionally, market players will be paying a close attention to another set of public appearances by Federal Reserve officials. At 13:00 GMT the Fed President for Dallas, Robert Kaplan, is to speak on economic conditions, trends and the limits of monetary policy at the Economic Club of New York.
At 16:45 GMT Federal Reserve Board Governor, Jerome Powell, is to attend a discussion on Understanding Fedspeak at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
At 17:35 GMT the Fed President for Cleveland, Loretta Mester, is scheduled to speak on monetary policy and economic outlook in front of the African American Chamber of Commerce of Western Pennsylvania in Pittsburgh. Economic outlook or monetary policy-related remarks would heighten USD and gold volatility.
Meanwhile, medium-term investor rate hike expectations were little changed near highs unseen in more than a year.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, as of November 29th, market players saw a 91.7% chance of a rate hike occurring at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in December, down from 93.5% in the prior four business days, and a 92.2% chance of a hike in February 2017, down from 94.0% in the preceding three business days. As far as the March 15th 2017 meeting is concerned, the probability of such a move was seen at 94.9% on November 29th, or unchanged compared to the prior business day.
Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily levels of importance for gold are presented as follows:
R1 – $1,192.2
R2 – $1,193.6
R3 (Range Resistance – Sell) – $1,195.0
R4 (Long Breakout) – $1,199.1
R5 (Breakout Target 1) – $1,204.0
R6 (Breakout Target 2) – $1,206.0
S1 – $1,189.4
S2 – $1,188.0
S3 (Range Support – Buy) – $1,186.6
S4 (Short Breakout) – $1,182.5
S5 (Breakout Target 1) – $1,177.6
S6 (Breakout Target 2) – $1,175.6
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly levels of importance for gold are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – $1,189.9
R1 – $1,209.4
R2 – $1,240.5
R3 – $1,260.0
R4 – $1,279.6
S1 – $1,158.8
S2 – $1,139.3
S3 – $1,108.2
S4 – $1,077.2
In monthly terms, for the yellow metal we have the following pivots:
Central Pivot Point – $1,279.6
R1 – $1,316.1
R2 – $1,359.0
R3 – $1,395.5
R4 – $1,431.9
S1 – $1,236.7
S2 – $1,200.2
S3 – $1,157.3
S4 – $1,114.3
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