Forex Market: USD/NOK daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session USD/NOK traded within the range of 5.9314-5.9782 and closed at 5.9356.

At 6:45 GMT today USD/NOK was losing 0.02% for the day to trade at 5.9354. The pair touched a daily low at 5.9292 at 1:10 GMT.

Fundamental view

Norway

Norways annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) probably remained unchanged at 2.1% in March. In monthly terms, the index probably rose 0.2% last month, following another 0.5% increase in February. It reflects the change in the general level of prices of over 650 goods and services, which the population acquires, uses or pays for consumption. In case the CPI accelerated more than expected, this would bolster demand for the krone.

Nations annualized core CPI (CPI-ATE) probably increased to 2.5% in March from 2.4% during the prior month. This indicator is comprised by two main components – CPI-AE, which excludes energy costs and prices of raw materials, and CPI-AT, which is based on real current prices adjusted for taxes. CPI-ATE is the indicator, used by Norges Bank in order to set its interest rate policy. A higher than expected core CPI would support the national currency, as this boosts the case for a rate hike. Statistics Norway is to release the official report on consumer inflation at 8:00 GMT.

United States

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended on April 5th, probably decreased to 320 000 from 326 000 in the prior week. In case the number of initial jobless claims fell more than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case USD/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 5.9653, it will probably continue up to test 5.9952. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 6.0122.

If USD/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 5.9186, it will probably continue to slide and test 5.9016. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 5.8718.