On Wednesday (in GMT terms) gold for delivery in December traded within the range of $1,321.1-$1,331.1. Futures closed at $1,323.7, shedding 0.50% compared to Tuesday’s close. It has been the 183rd drop in the past 347 trading days and also a second consecutive one. The daily low has been a level unseen since September 21st, when the commodity went down as low as $1,310.9 per troy ounce. The precious metal has trimmed its advance to 0.94% so far during the current month, after losing 3.40% in August.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for delivery in December were inching up 0.08% on Thursday to trade at $1,324.8 per troy ounce. The precious metal went up as high as $1,329.4 during early Asian trade, while the current daily low was at $1,323.5 per troy ounce, recorded during the early phase of the European trading session.
The US Dollar Index, a gauge reflecting the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of 6 other major currencies, was edging up 0.14% on the day at a level of 95.44, after going up as high as 95.50 earlier. Yesterday the index climbed to 95.66, which has been its highest level since September 21st. The gauge has trimmed its drop to 0.53% so far in September, following a 0.54% advance in August.
Investor risk appetite remained high, pressuring gold prices, after at a conference in Algiers yesterday OPEC members came to an agreement to cut oil production in the first deal since 2008.
Today gold trading may be strongly influenced by the final report on US Gross Domestic Product. The final estimate probably pointed to an annualized rate of growth of 1.3% in the second quarter of 2016. If so, it would exceed the 2nd GDP estimate, reported on August 26th. The 2nd estimate came below the preliminary one, because trade contribution to the GDP was lower, while the drop in inventories was sharper than anticipated, a report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed. In case the final GDP estimate met or even outpaced market expectations, this would have a strong bullish effect on the US dollar and a strong bearish effect on gold. The official report is due out at 12:30 GMT.
Market players will be also paying a close attention to another set of public appearances of several Federal Reserve officials. At 12:50 GMT the Fed President for Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart, is to speak in front of the 2016 Future of Florida Forum in Orlando.
At 14:00 GMT Federal Reserve Board Governor, Jerome Powell, is expected to take a statement before the Community Banking in the 21st Century Conference, which will be hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
At 18:00 GMT the Fed President for Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, is to participate in Town Hall on economic development in Rapid City and surrounding areas.
At 20:00 GMT Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, is expected to speak at the “Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Minority Bankers” conference, which will be hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
At 20:15 GMT the Fed President for Kansas City, Esther George, is to speak on “Opportunities and Challenges for the Banking Industry and the Federal Reserve” at the “Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Minority Bankers” conference in Kansas.
During her testimony before Congress on Wednesday Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, did not offer any clues on the Banks future policy, but, yet, she noted there was no “fixed timetable” for adjusting the current policy stance. Yellen stressed that if current job growth rate continued, it may cause the economy to overheat. If such a scenario unfolds, the Federal Reserve may be urged to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace than expected.
Yellens remarks came a day after Fed Vice Chairman, Stanley Fischer, said the central bank should take a more cautious approach, when hiking interest rates. He noted a rate hike should occur, but did not hint on any time frame as well. Also on Tuesday, the Fed President for San Francisco, John Williams, said a rate hike could be introduced without threatening economic recovery.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, as of September 28th, market players saw a 10.3% chance of a rate hike occurring at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in November, up from 8.3% in the prior business day, and a 53.1% chance of a hike in December, up from 47.7% in the preceding business day. As far as the February 1st 2017 meeting is concerned, the probability of such a move was seen at 55.9% on September 28th, up from 50.8% in the prior business day.
Meanwhile, silver futures for delivery in December were edging up 0.35% on the day to trade at $19.188 per troy ounce, after going up as high as $19.460 a troy ounce during the early phase of the Asian trading session. Yesterday the metal slipped to $18.975 a troy ounce, or its lowest price level since September 19th.
Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily levels of importance for gold are presented as follows:
R1 – $1,324.6
R2 – $1,325.5
R3 (Range Resistance – Sell) – $1,326.5
R4 (Long Breakout) – $1,329.2
R5 (Breakout Target 1) – $1,332.4
R6 (Breakout Target 2) – $1,333.7
S1 – $1,322.8
S2 – $1,321.9
S3 (Range Support – Buy) – $1,321.0
S4 (Short Breakout) – $1,318.2
S5 (Breakout Target 1) – $1,315.0
S6 (Breakout Target 2) – $1,313.7
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly levels of importance for gold are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – $1,333.5
R1 – $1,356.0
R2 – $1,370.4
R3 – $1,392.9
R4 – $1,415.5
S1 – $1,319.1
S2 – $1,296.6
S3 – $1,282.2
S4 – $1,267.9
In monthly terms, for the yellow metal we have the following pivots:
Central Pivot Point – $1,330.8
R1 – $1,354.8
R2 – $1,398.1
R3 – $1,422.1
R4 – $1,446.0
S1 – $1,287.5
S2 – $1,263.5
S3 – $1,220.2
S4 – $1,176.8
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