Forex Market: USD/SEK daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/SEK within the range of 7.4401-7.3620. The pair closed at 7.4345, adding 0.48% on a daily basis.

At 7:54 GMT today USD/SEK was down 0.01% for the day to trade at 7.4333. The pair held in a daily range of 7.4192-7.4441.

Fundamental view

United States

The National Federation of Independent Business is expected to report at 12:30 GMT that confidence among owners of small businesses likely declined in October, with the corresponding NFIB Small Business Optimism index projected to come in at 95.1, compared to 95.3 a month earlier. The data is due out at 12:30 GMT.

The NFIB Research Foundation releases this report on the second Tuesday of each month. It is a composite of ten seasonally-adjusted components based on the survey results of NFIB members who are asked regarding their plans to increase employment, make capital outlays and increase inventories, as well as their expectations for economic improvement, real sales levels, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, expansion outlook and earnings trend.

Meanwhile, Redbook Research Inc is expected to report that its Redbook Index rose by an annualized 3.1% last week, compared to 3.9% during the preceding period.

The Redbook index represents the sales-weighted growth of year-on-year same-store sales, largely representing the US retail sector. It is based on sales data of around 9 000 large general merchandise retailers which represent more than 80% of the equivalent official retail sales series collected and published by the US Commerce Department.

Sweden

The rate of unemployment in Sweden rose to 7.9% in October from 7.8% in September.

It represents the percentage of the eligible work force that is unemployed, but is actively seeking employment. The rate of unemployment also reflects overall economic state in the country, as there is a strong correlation between consumer spending levels and labor market conditions. Low rates of unemployment are accompanied by increased spending, which causes a favorable effect on corporate profits and also leads to overall growth acceleration.

Sweden’s annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) probably contracted by 0.2% in October, according to expectations, from -0.4% in September, which was the fastest level of deflation since March.

In monthly terms, consumer prices were probably flat compared to a 0.2% gain a month earlier.

The index measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also reflects purchasing trends. Statistics Sweden is to release the official report at 8:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 7.4122. In case USD/SEK manages to breach the first resistance level at 7.4624, it may continue up to test 7.4903. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair could attempt to advance to 7.5405.

If USD/SEK manages to breach the first key support at 7.3843, it may continue to slide and test 7.3341. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside could extend to 7.3062.

The mid-pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 7.3202, M2 – 7.3592, M3 – 7.3983, M4 – 7.4373, M5 – 7.4764, M6 – 7.5154.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 7.3973. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 7.4587, R2 – 7.5159, R3 – 7.5773. The three key support levels are: S1 – 7.3401, S2 – 7.2787, S3 – 7.2215.