On Thursday (in GMT terms) gold for delivery in August traded within the range of $1,320.00-$1,347.85. Futures closed at $1,332.20, retreating 0.76% compared to Wednesday’s close. It has been the 157th drop in the past 294 trading days. The daily low has been the lowest price level since June 30th, when a low of $1,314.50 per troy ounce was registered. The commodity has increased its advance to 1.09% so far during the current month, after surging 8.53% in June.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for delivery in August were inching down 0.04% on Friday to trade at $1,331.65 per troy ounce. The precious metal went up as high as $1,334.80 during late Asian trade, while the current daily low was at $1,326.50 per troy ounce, recorded during the mid phase of the Asian trading session.
The US Dollar Index, a gauge reflecting the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of 6 other major currencies, was inching down 0.06% on the day at a level of 96.04, after falling to as low as 95.92 earlier. The index has erased earlier gains and is now down 0.16% so far during the current month, following a 0.33% increase in June.
Today the precious metal may be strongly influenced by the monthly report on US consumer prices. The annualized consumer inflation in the country probably accelerated to 1.1% in June, according to market expectations, from 1.0% in May. In monthly terms, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) probably rose for a fourth consecutive month in June, going up 0.3%, according to the market consensus, following a 0.2% surge in the preceding month. The annualized core consumer inflation, which is stripped of prices of food and energy, probably accelerated to 2.3% in June, according to market expectations, from 2.2% in May. If expectations were met, this would be the highest annual core inflation since February. If the general CPI tends to approach the inflation objective, set by the Federal Reserve and considered as providing price stability, or a level below but close to 2%, this will usually support demand for the US Dollar and pressure demand for gold, as it heightens the probability of monetary policy tightening. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is to release the official CPI report at 12:30 GMT.
A separate report may show that industrial output in the United States expanded at a monthly rate of 0.2% in June, according to market expectations, following a 0.4% contraction in the prior month. In case the index of production expanded more than anticipated in June, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US Dollar and a moderate bearish effect on gold, because of positive implications regrading inflation pressure and overall economic activity. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve is to release the production data at 13:15 GMT.
Last but not least, the monthly survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan may show that consumer confidence in the United States remained unchanged in July. The preliminary reading of the corresponding index, which usually comes out two weeks ahead of the final data, probably remained at 93.5 during the current month, matching the final reading in June. The latter came below the preliminary reading of 94.3, which was reported on June 10th. In case the gauge of consumer sentiment came above expectations in July, this would have a moderate-to-strong bullish effect on the US Dollar and would mount selling pressure on gold. The preliminary reading is due out at 14:00 GMT.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, as of July 14th, market players saw a 12.0% chance of a rate hike occurring at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in September, up from 11.7% in the prior day, and also a 12.0% chance of a hike in November, up from 11.7% in the preceding day. As far as the December meeting is concerned, the probability of such a move was seen at 37.1%, up from 32.3% in the preceding day. At the same time, the probability of a rate cut occurring in July was estimated at 0% as of July 14th, down from 2.4% on July 13th.
Meanwhile, silver futures for delivery in September were edging down 0.47% on the day to trade at $20.227 per troy ounce, after going down as low as $20.188 a troy ounce during the early phase of the Asian trading session.
Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily levels of importance for gold are presented as follows:
R1 – $1,334.75
R2 – $1,337.31
R3 (Range Resistance – Sell) – $1,339.86
R4 (Long Breakout) – $1,347.52
R5 (Breakout Target 1) – $1,356.46
R6 (Breakout Target 2) – $1,360.31
S1 – $1,329.65
S2 – $1,327.09
S3 (Range Support – Buy) – $1,324.54
S4 (Short Breakout) – $1,316.88
S5 (Breakout Target 1) – $1,307.94
S6 (Breakout Target 2) – $1,304.09
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly levels of importance for gold are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – $1,356.35
R1 – $1,377.70
R2 – $1.398.80
R3 – $1,420.15
R4 – $1,441.50
S1 – $1,335.25
S2 – $1,313.90
S3 – $1,292.80
S4 – $1,271.70
In monthly terms, for the yellow metal we have the following pivots:
Central Pivot Point – $1,293.13
R1 – $1,380.87
R2 – $1,443.33
R3 – $1,531.07
R4 – $1,618.80
S1 – $1,230.67
S2 – $1,142.93
S3 – $1,080.47
S4 – $1,018.00
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