Friday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.3222-1.3286. The pair closed at 1.3275, edging up 0.21% on a daily basis. It has been the 32nd gain in the past 59 trading days and also a third consecutive one. In weekly terms, USD/CAD appreciated 2.11% during the past week. It has been the 3rd gain in the past 12 weeks. USD/CAD has trimmed losses to 2.19% of its value so far during the current month, following a 3.10% slump in February.
At 7:09 GMT today USD/CAD was edging down 0.24% on the day to trade at 1.3243. The pair touched a daily low at 1.3239 at 7:15 GMT, overshooting the lower range breakout level (S4), and a daily high at 1.3285 during early Asian trade.
On Monday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
Personal Income, Personal Spending
Personal spending in the United States probably rose 0.1% in February, according to market expectations, while personal income was probably up for an 11th consecutive month in February, increasing at a monthly rate of 0.1%.
Consumer spending, which accounts for over two thirds of the nations GDP, rose 0.5% in January, due to higher expenditures on durable goods and services. At the same time, personal income increased 0.5% (USD 79.6 billion) during the same month, while disposable personal income (DPI) rose by USD 63.5 billion.
Wages and salaries were up USD 48.1 billion in January, following an increase by USD 18.3 billion in the preceding month, while supplements to wages and salaries rose USD 6.5 billion in January, after going up USD 5.0 billion in December.
Higher-than-expected rates of increase imply good employment conditions and, therefore, are dollar positive. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is to publish the official figures at 12:30 GMT.
Pending Home Sales
The index of pending home sales in the United States probably rose 0.8% in February, according to the median estimate by experts. If so, this would be the sharpest monthly increase since April 2015, when sales went up at a revised down 2.7%. In January pending home sales unexpectedly fell 2.5%, or the most since December 2014.
In annual terms, the index of pending home sales advanced 1.4% in January, which has been a 17th consecutive period of increase. However, Januarys rate of sales growth has been the slowest since September 2014, when sales were up 1.0%.
In case pending home sales increased at a faster pace than anticipated, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar. The National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) will report on the official index performance at 14:00 GMT.
Correlation with other Majors
Taking into account the week ended on March 25th and the daily closing levels of the major currency pairs, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:
USD/CAD to USD/CHF (0.8464, or very strong)
USD/CAD to USD/JPY (0.7875, or strong)
USD/CAD to GBP/USD (-0.6338, or strong)
USD/CAD to EUR/USD (-0.8889, or very strong)
USD/CAD to NZD/USD (-0.9500, or very strong)
USD/CAD to AUD/USD (-0.9811, or very strong)
1. During the examined period USD/CAD moved almost equally in one and the same direction with USD/CHF.
2. USD/CAD moved strongly in one and the same direction with USD/JPY during the past week, while moving strongly in the opposite direction compared to GBP/USD.
3. USD/CAD moved almost equally in the opposite direction compared to EUR/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD during the past week. This relationship has been the most pronounced between USD/CAD and AUD/USD, with the correlation between these two pairs being almost perfect.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.3281
R2 – 1.3287
R3 (range resistance) – 1.3293
R4 (range breakout) – 1.3310
S1 – 1.3269
S2 – 1.3263
S3 (range support) – 1.3257
S4 (range breakout) – 1.3240
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.3188
R1 – 1.3385
R2 – 1.3494
R3 – 1.3691
S1 – 1.3079
S2 – 1.2882
S3 – 1.2773
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