Forex Market: EUR/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3438-1.3485 and closed at 1.3465.

At 6:43 GMT today EUR/USD was adding 0.07% for the day to trade at 1.3473. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3475 at 6:34 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

At 08:00 GMT, the Ifo Institute for Economic Research will publish its IFO Business Climate Index for Germany, the largest economy in the Euro zone. The index is expected to have slightly deteriorated to 109.4 this month, from 109.7 in June.

The index is based on a monthly survey among 7,000 respondents from companies in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail sectors. Respondents give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They characterize their companies’ situation as “good”, ” satisfactory” or ” poor ” and their expectations for their business over the next six months as ” more favorable “, ” unchanged ” or ” more unfavorable ”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of respondents that answered the situation is “good” and those that assess it is “bad”, while the value of the balance for future business expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses ” more favorable ” and ” more unfavorable “.

Ifo business climate index represents the average balance of the two sub-indexes, the sub-index of current conditions and the sub-index of business expectations. The composite index uses a value of 100 points as a separator between the positive and negative forecasts. The more the result gets away from 100 points, the greater the confidence of the respondents.

A higher than expected reading will certainly provide support to the 18-nation common currency.

United States

Durable goods orders in the US probably rose 0.4% in June, following an unexpected 0.9% drop in the previous month that was lower than initially estimated.

Durable goods are new or second hand goods that usually last for a period of over 3 years. Wholesalers sell durable goods such as motor vehicles, furniture, construction materials, machinery and equipment (including household appliances), metals and minerals (except petroleum), sporting goods, toys and goods for leisure activities, renewable materials and spare parts.

Durable Goods Orders excluding Transport probably rose 0.5% in June, after being flat in the previous month, according to the median analysts’ estimate.

The US Census Bureau is scheduled to publish an official report at 12:30 GMT. In case, durable goods orders rose more than expected, the greenback’s demand will certainly be supported.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.3463. In case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3487, it will probably continue up to test 1.3510. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3534.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3440, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3416. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3393.