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Forex Market: GBP/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.4174-1.4244. The pair closed at 1.4207, inching down 0.06% on a daily basis. It has been the 28th drop in the past 48 trading days and also a second consecutive one. GBP/USD has added 1.95% to its value so far during the current month, following four consecutive months of decline.

At 7:21 GMT today GBP/USD was edging down 0.13% for the day to trade at 1.4188. The pair touched a daily low at 1.4183 at 7:16 GMT, overshooting the range support level (S3), and a daily high at 1.4219 during the early phase of the Asian trading session.

On Thursday GBP/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.


United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on March 4th, probably fell to 275 000, according to market expectations, from 278 000 reported in the preceding week. The latter has been the highest number of claims since the business week ended on January 29th, when 285 000 claims were reported.

The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 270 250, marking a decrease by 1 750 compared to the preceding weeks unrevised average.

The business week, which ended on February 26th, has been the 51st consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which suggested a healthy labor market.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or decreased further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably decreased to the seasonally adjusted 2 255 000 during the business week ended on February 26th from 2 257 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented an increase by 3 000 compared to the revised up number of claims reported in the week ended on February 12th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.

Monthly Budget Statement

The United States probably recorded a government budget deficit of USD 200 billion in February, according to market expectations, after a budget surplus of USD 55.16 billion during the previous month. In January 2015 a deficit figure of USD 17.5 billion was reported.

In January total receipts were at USD 314 billion. Individual income taxes contributed to USD 181 billion, social security and other payroll taxes – USD 102 billion, corporate income taxes – USD 7 billion and other taxes and duties – USD 23 billion.

Total outlays amounted to USD 258 billion during January. Social security contributed to USD 50 billion, defense – USD 40 billion, Medicare – USD 44 billion, interest on debt – USD 21 billion and other outlays – USD 104 billion, according to the report by the US Treasury.

The current fiscal year-to-date budget gap amounted to USD 160 billion, or a 17.5% decrease compared to the same period a year earlier.

A larger-than-projected budget deficit in February would have a moderate bearish effect on the greenback. The Financial Management Service is to publish the official figure at 19:00 GMT.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.4213
R2 – 1.4220
R3 (range resistance) – 1.4227
R4 (range breakout) – 1.4246

S1 – 1.4201
S2 – 1.4193
S3 (range support) – 1.4187
S4 (range breakout) – 1.4169

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.4103
R1 – 1.4373
R2 – 1.4519
R3 – 1.4789

S1 – 1.3957
S2 – 1.3687
S3 – 1.3541 is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover Forex, Price Action and Social Trading.

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