Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.1170-1.1282. The pair closed at 1.1272, rising 0.78% on a daily basis, or at the sharpest rate since September 17th, when it went up 1.31%. The daily low was a test of the low from Monday.
According to Binary Tribunes analysis on historical volatility, the average intraday volatility for the pair was 0.881% in September, or the lowest since December 2014, when average volatility was estimated at 0.696%. Within the period January 2013-September 2015, the highest average intraday volatility was observed in June 2015, or 1.383%.
At the same time, the average daily volatility for EUR/USD was 0.880% in September, or the lowest one since February 2015. Back then the average daily volatility was estimated at 0.875%. Within the period January 2013-September 2015, the highest average daily volatility was observed in June 2015 again, or 1.463%.
At 6:31 GMT today EUR/USD was losing 0.12% for the day to trade at 1.1260. The pair touched a daily low at 1.1257 at 6:02 GMT.
Today the cross may be influenced by a number of macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
Consumer credit change
The money amounts, borrowed by consumers probably decreased to USD 19.0 billion in August, according to market expectations, from USD 19.1 billion in July. Given the current state of the economy, a higher-than-expected amount borrowed is usually considered as dollar positive, as it implies a potential increase in consumer spending and accelerated growth, respectively. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve is to release the official numbers at 19:00 GMT.
Global GDP forecast revised down
Yesterday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its global economy outlook, saying that global GDP will probably increase 3.1% in 2015 (down from a 3.3% growth expected previously) and 3.6% in 2016 (down from a 3.8% growth expected previously). The sharpest revisions of the GDP growth rate were announced for developing economies such as the Russian Federation, Brazil, South Africa and Nigeria.
Bond Yield Spread
The yield on German 2-year government bonds went as high as -0.237% on October 6th, or the highest level since September 25th (-0.226%), after which it slid to -0.247% at the close to add 1.2 basis points (0.012 percentage point) compared to October 5th. It has been the second consecutive trading day of increase.
The yield on US 2-year government bonds climbed as high as 0.613% on October 6th, after which it fell to 0.605% at the close to lose 0.004 percentage point compared to October 5th.
The spread between 2-year US and 2-year German bond yields, which reflects the flow of funds in a short term, shrank to 0.852% on October 6th from 0.868% on October 5th. The October 6th yield spread has been the largest one since October 1st, when the difference was 0.914%.
Meanwhile, the yield on German 10-year government bonds soared as high as 0.617% on October 6th, or the highest level since September 30th (0.617%), after which it slid to 0.592% at the close to add 2.6 basis points (0.026 percentage point) compared to October 5th. It has been the second consecutive trading day of increase.
The yield on US 10-year government bonds climbed as high as 2.077% on October 6th, or the highest level since September 30th (2.104%), after which it slipped to 2.035% at the close to lose 2.3 basis points (0.023 percentage point) compared to October 5th.
The spread between 10-year US and 10-year German bond yields narrowed to 1.443% on October 6th from 1.492% on October 5th. The October 6th yield difference has been the lowest one since September 17th, when the spread was 1.408%.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.1282
R2 – 1.1293
R3 (range resistance) – 1.1303
R4 (range breakout) – 1.1334
S1 – 1.1262
S2 – 1.1251
S3 (range support) – 1.1241
S4 (range breakout) – 1.1210
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.1221
R1 – 1.1309
R2 – 1.1407
R3 – 1.1495
S1 – 1.1123
S2 – 1.1035
S3 – 1.0937
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
