Forex Market: GBP/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.5391 – 1.5256. The pair closed 0.23% higher at 1.5386.

At 07:04 GMT today GBP/USD was up 0.13% for the day to trade at 1.5405. The cross held in a daily range between 1.5369 and 1.5434 and is up 0.9% for the week, having fallen by a combined 2.9% over the past three weeks.

Fundamentals

United Kingdom

Annualized industrial production in the United Kingdom probably expanded 0.6% in April, following a 0.7% gain during the preceding month. If so, this would be the 20th straight monthly expansion. In monthly terms, industrial production probably increased 0.1%, according to expectations, after a growth of 0.5% in March. The index measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of production in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities.

United Kingdom’s annualized manufacturing production, which accounts for almost 80% of the nation’s industrial output, probably grew 0.4% in April. If so, this would be the 20th consecutive month of output growth as well. In March, the gauge showed a reading of 1.1%. In monthly terms, production probably jumped 0.1%, according to expectations, following a 0.4% growth the previous month. As it is a key component of the country’s Gross Domestic Product, in case manufacturing production expanded more than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the sterling. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the official industrial data at 08:30 GMT.

United States

The Mortgage Bankers Association will release its mortgage applications data for the week ended June 5th at 11:00 GMT. The MBA Mortgage Applications index measures the change in the number of new applications for mortgages backed by the Association during the reported week. It includes both refinancing and home purchases. A better-than-expected reading should be considered as positive for the US dollar, and vice versa.

The index is expected to come in at -13.3%. It dropped by a seasonally-adjusted 7.6% during the week ended May 29th, with the Refinance Index sliding 12% from the preceding week, while the seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index fell 3%.

Pivot points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the pair’s central pivot point stands at 1.5344. In case it penetrates the first resistance level at 1.5433, it will encounter next resistance at 1.5479. If breached, upside movement may attempt to advance to 1.5568.

If the cross drops below its S1 level at 1.5298, it will next see support at 1.5209. If the second key support zone is breached, downward movement may extend to 1.5163.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.5294. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.5420, R2 – 1.5568, R3 – 1.5694. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.5146, S2 – 1.5020, S3 – 1.4872.