Forex Market: EUR/PLN daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/PLN within the range of 4.1844-4.2002. The pair closed at 4.1992, losing 0.02% on a daily basis.

At 7:46 GMT today EUR/PLN was down 0.02% for the day to trade at 4.1960. The pair touched a daily low at 4.1913 at 3:00 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Italian consumer inflation

Italys final annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) probably fell to -0.1% in August, matching the preliminary CPI, reported on August 29th. If so, this would be the first time in 55 years, when Italian consumer inflation entered negative territory. According to provisional estimates, the drop in consumer prices is mostly driven by lower prices of non-regulated energy products, which fell 1.2%, as well as due to a slowdown in costs of services in the country. In July the annualized CPI was at 0.1%.

Key categories, included in Italys Consumer Price Index, are food and non-alcoholic beverages (accounting for 16% of total weight), transport (15%), restaurants and hotels (11%) and housing, water, electricity and other fuels (10%). Other categories are clothing and footwear (9%), furnishing and household equipment (8%), recreation and culture (8%) and health (also 8%). Communication, education, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and other goods and services comprise the remaining 15% of the index.

Nations final annualized CPI, evaluated in accordance with the harmonized methodology, probably matched the preliminary HICP estimate of -0.2% in August, which was released on August 29th. The National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) is to release the official CPI report at 9:00 GMT.

Euro zones industrial output

The seasonally adjusted index of industrial production in the Euro zone probably expanded 0.5% in July compared to a month ago, following a 0.3% drop in June. Annualized output probably increased at a pace of 1.3% in July, after a flat performance in June and a 0.5% expansion in May, with the latter being the lowest annual rate of increase since September 2013. The index, reflecting business cycle, measures the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities. In case industrial output expanded more than anticipated, this would support demand for the single currency. Eurostat is to publish the official data at 9:00 GMT.

Poland

At 9:00 GMT Eurostat is to report on industrial production in Poland for July. In June compared to May output increased 0.4%, following a 1.7% drop in May compared to April. The latter has been the most considerable rate of contraction since December 2013. In case of expansion, the local currency would receive certain support.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 4.1946. In case EUR/PLN manages to breach the first resistance level at 4.2048, it will probably continue up to test 4.2104. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 4.2206.

If EUR/PLN manages to breach the first key support at 4.1888, it will probably continue to slide and test 4.1788. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 4.1732.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 4.1760, M2 – 4.1839, M3 – 4.1918, M4 – 4.1997, M5 – 4.2076, M6 – 4.2155.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 4.1855. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 4.2060, R2 – 4.2360, R3 – 4.2565. The three key support levels are: S1 – 4.1555, S2 – 4.1350, S3 – 4.1050.