Forex Market: EUR/USD daily trading forecast

Yesterdays trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.0899-1.1017. The pair closed at 1.0972, up 0.42% on a daily basis, or marking a second gain in the past three trading days.

At 8:31 GMT today EUR/USD was up 0.65% for the day to trade at 1.1041. The pair breached the first key daily resistance and touched a daily high at 1.1049 at 8:29 GMT. This has also been the highest level since March 5th, when a high of 1.1116 was recorded.

Fundamentals

Euro Area

Private loans

Lending to individuals and business entities in the Euro areas private sector probably expanded for the first time in the past 32 months, rising at an annualized rate of 0.1% in February, according to market expectations. In January the total value of private sector loans decreased 0.1% year-on-year. In case lending expanded at a faster pace than anticipated, this would support demand for the euro, as it implies higher economic activity in the future in terms of consumer spending and business investments. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to release the official data at 9:00 GMT.

United States

Initial, Continuing jobless claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended on March 20th, probably decreased to 290 000 from 291 000 in the prior week. The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 304 750, marking an increase of 2 250 from the previous weeks revised up average.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims dropped more than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably fell to the seasonally adjusted 2 403 000 during the week ended on March 13th. If so, this would be the lowest level since the week ended on January 30th, when 2 367 000 claims were reported. There were 2 417 000 claims registered during the week ended on March 6th. The latter represented a decrease by 11 000 compared to the revised up number of claims, reported during the week ended on February 27th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.

Services PMI by Markit – preliminary reading

At 14:45 GMT Markit Economics will report on activity in the US sector of services in March. In February the final seasonally adjusted PMI stood at 57.1, up from a preliminary value of 57.0. It has been the highest reading since October 2014, when the gauge came in at a final 57.1. The PMI is based on data collected from a representative panel of more than 400 private sector companies, which encompasses industries such as transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT and hotels and restaurants. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate optimism (expanding activity). In case the PMI improved for a third straight month in March, this would be dollar positive.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.0963. In case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.1026, it will probably continue up to test 1.1081. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.1144.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.0908, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.0845. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.0790.

The mid-Pivot levels for Monday are as follows: M1 – 1.0818, M2 – 1.0877, M3 – 1.0936, M4 – 1.0995, M5 – 1.1054, M6 – 1.1113.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.0770. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.1085, R2 – 1.1347, R3 – 1.1662. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.0508, S2 – 1.0193, S3 – 0.9931.