Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.0579-1.0993. The daily high has also been the highest level since March 6th, when a high of 1.1035 was recorded. The pair closed at 1.0866, up 2.54% on a daily basis and marking a third straight daily gain.
At 8:06 GMT today EUR/USD was down 1.57% for the day to trade at 1.0697. The pair touched a daily low at 1.0680 at 7:40 GMT.
Fundamentals
Euro area
ECB Economic Bulletin
At 9:00 GMT the European Central Bank will release its new publication, which is to replace the Monthly Bulletin. The Economic Bulletin will include detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions and price stability risks in the Euro region from the bank’s perspective. It will be published two weeks after ECB’s monetary policy decision.
United States
Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims
The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended on March 13th, probably increased to 292 000 from 289 000 in the prior week. The latter has been the lowest level since the week ended on February 13th. The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 302 250, marking a decrease of 3 750 from the previous weeks revised up average.
Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims increased more than projected, this would have a bearish effect on the greenback.
The number of continuing jobless claims probably fell to the seasonally adjusted 2 410 000 during the week ended on March 6th from 2 418 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented a decrease by 5 000 compared to the revised up number of claims, reported during the week ended on February 20th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.
The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.
Conference Board Leading Indicator
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the United States probably increased 0.2% in February compared to a month ago, according to the median estimate by experts. If so, this would be the sixth consecutive month of gains. In January compared to December the index gained another 0.2%. It encompasses a variety of economic indicators, which signify possible changes in overall economic activity. The index is comprised by the following components: average weekly hours in manufacturing, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials, ISM Index of New Orders, manufacturers new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders, building permits, new private housing units, Stock prices, 500 common stocks, Leading Credit Index, interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds, average consumer expectations for business conditions. Better-than-expected performance of the index is usually dollar positive. The Conference Board will release the official data at 14:00 GMT.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index probably increased to a reading of 7.1 in March from 5.2 index points during the previous month. The latter has been the lowest level since January 2014, when the index was reported in negative territory. The index is based on a monthly business survey (the Business Outlook Survey), measuring manufacturing activity in the third district of the Federal Reserve, Philadelphia. Participants give their opinion about the direction of business changes in overall economy and different indicators of activity in their companies, such as employment, working hours, new and existing orders, deliveries, inventories, delivery time, price etc. The survey is conducted every month since May 1968. The results are presented as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative projections. A level above zero is indicative of improving conditions, while a level below zero is indicative of worsening conditions. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is expected to release the official results from the survey at 14:00 GMT. Higher-than-expected index readings would have a bullish effect on the greenback.
Pivot Points
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.0813. In case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.1046, it will probably continue up to test 1.1227. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.1460.
If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.0632, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.0399. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.0218.
The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.0309, M2 – 1.0516, M3 – 1.0723, M4 – 1.0930, M5 – 1.1137, M6 – 1.1344.
In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.0621. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.0782, R2 – 1.1069, R3 – 1.1230. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.0334, S2 – 1.0173, S3 – 0.9886.
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