Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/NOK within the range of 8.8392-8.7295. The pair closed at 8.7952, adding 0.25% on a daily basis.
At 7:23 GMT today EUR/NOK was up 0.10% for the day to trade at 8.8006. The pair ranged between 8.7898 and 8.8196 during the day.
Fundamentals
Euro area
French consumer confidence
Confidence among consumers in France probably improved in January, with the respective index coming in at a reading of 91.0, according to the median forecast by experts, from 90.0 in December. If so, this would be the highest level of confidence since May 2012.
The index of consumer confidence is based on a survey, encompassing about 2 000 households. Respondents give their opinion regarding past and future economic situation in France, past and future personal financial situation, unemployment, intention to make major purchases, current savings capacity and expected savings capacity.
The indicator is calculated using factor analysis technique. The index is then calculated in a way to measure the current confidence compared to the historic index values during the period 1987-2011. If the gauge shows a reading over 110, this suggests that optimism is higher than normal. If the index shows a reading under 90, this implies that pessimism is higher than normal. Readings of 100.0 signify neutrality.
Improving confidence is related with greater willingness to spend, therefore, higher than projected values may provide support to the euro. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) is to publish the official data at 7:45 GMT.
Norway
Unemployment
The rate of unemployment in Norway probably remained steady at 3.8% during the three months to November, according to the median forecast by experts, following a rate of 3.7% in August and September. It represents the percentage of the eligible work force that is unemployed, but is actively seeking employment. Unemployed persons are persons who were not employed in the survey week, but who had been seeking work during the preceding four weeks, and were available for work within the next two weeks. Persons in the labour force are either employed or unemployed. The remaining group of persons is labelled not in the labour force. Unemployed persons and persons not in the labour force constitute the group of non-employed persons. In case the unemployment rate met expectations or even increased further, this would have a bearish effect on the local krone. Statistics Norway will release the official unemployment data at 9:00 GMT.
Pivot Points
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 8.7880. In case EUR/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 8.8464, it will probably continue up to test 8.8977. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 8.9561.
If EUR/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 8.7367, it will probably continue to slide and test 8.6783. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 8.6270.
The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 8.6527, M2 – 8.7075, M3 – 8.7624, M4 – 8.8172, M5 – 8.8721, M6 – 8.9269.
In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 8.7644. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 8.8678, R2 – 9.0259, R3 – 9.1293. The three key support levels are: S1 – 8.6063, S2 – 8.5029, S3 – 8.3448.
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