Forex Market: EUR/GBP daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/GBP traded within the range of 0.7889-0.7939 and closed at 0.7925.

At 7:07 GMT today EUR/GBP was adding 0.04% for the day to trade at 0.7930. The pair touched a daily high at 0.7931 at 7:00 GMT. EUR/GBP touched 0.7874 on June 23rd, the pairs weakest since August 22nd 2012.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

At 08:00 GMT, the Ifo Institute for Economic Research will publish its IFO Business Climate Index for Germany, the largest economy in the Euro zone. The index is expected to have slightly deteriorated to 109.4 this month, from 109.7 in June.

The index is based on a monthly survey among 7,000 respondents from companies in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail sectors. Respondents give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They characterize their companies’ situation as “good”, ” satisfactory” or ” poor ” and their expectations for their business over the next six months as ” more favorable “, ” unchanged ” or ” more unfavorable ”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of respondents that answered the situation is “good” and those that assess it is “bad”, while the value of the balance for future business expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses ” more favorable ” and ” more unfavorable “.

Ifo business climate index represents the average balance of the two sub-indexes, the sub-index of current conditions and the sub-index of business expectations. The composite index uses a value of 100 points as a separator between the positive and negative forecasts. The more the result gets away from 100 points, the greater the confidence of the respondents.

A higher than expected reading will certainly provide support to the 18-nation common currency.

United Kingdom

The advance reading of the British GDP probably rose to 3.1% in the second quarter compared to a year ago, from a final reading of 3.0% in the first quarter.

The Gross Domestic Product is an integral part of the UK public account and measures the total economic activity of the country. GDP is still referred to as one of the main “common indicators” for economic activity and presents economic growth in the last quarter. This is the first calculation of the indicator based on production data and is published three-and-a-half weeks after the end of the quarter. This is a preliminary value of the indicator and is presented as a percentage change compared to the corresponding quarter a year earlier.

The Office for National Statistics is scheduled to release an official report at 08:30 GMT. In case, the British GDP grew at a faster-than-expected pace, sterling’s demand will be heightened.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.7918. In case EUR/GBP manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.7946, it will probably continue up to test 0.7968. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.7996.

If EUR/GBP manages to breach the first key support at 0.7896, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.7868. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.7846.