Forex Market: EUR/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.2568-1.2456. The pair closed at 1.2486, losing 0.48% on a daily basis.

At 7:40 GMT today EUR/USD was up 0.24% for the day to trade at 1.2514. The pair held in a daily range of 1.2472-1.2530.

Fundamental view

Eurozone

German factory orders, an indicator gauging the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed for durable and non-durable goods, rose 0.8% in September on a monthly basis, underperforming analysts’ expectations for a 2.3% jump. August’s reading received an upward revision to show a 4.2% contraction from initially estimated at -5.7%.

Factory orders are considered as a key indicator for analyzing the short-term trend in production in Germany. In case the gauge gained more than projected, this would have a bullish impact on the euro, and vice versa.

Market participants also eyed ECB’s interest rate decision, due at 12:45 GMT, which is largely expected to introduce no policy changes.

United States

The Labor Department is expected to report at 13:30 GMT that the number of Americans who filed for initial unemployment benefits in the week ended November 1st stood at 285 000, down 2 000 from the preceding period.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims increased more than projected, this would have a bearish effect on the greenback.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably slid to 2.360 million from 2.384 million during the previous period.

Nonfarm productivity probably rose by 1.5% in the third quarter on a quarterly basis, a preliminary reading is expected to show, compared to a 2.3% gain during the previous three months. Unit labor costs are expected to have marked a 0.5% gain on the same basis, following a 0.1% contraction in the second quarter.

Pivot points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.2503. In case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.2551, it may continue up to test 1.2615. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair may attempt to advance to 1.2663.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.2439, it could continue to slide and test 1.2391. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside may extend to 1.2327.

The mid-pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.2359, M2 – 1.2415, M3 – 1.2471, M4 – 1.2527, M5 – 1.2583, M6 – 1.2639.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.2594. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.2703, R2 – 1.2882, R3 – 1.2991. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.2415, S2 – 1.2306, S3 – 1.2127.