Forex Market: USD/PLN daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/PLN within the range of 3.2800-3.3167. The pair closed at 3.2881, losing 0.75% on a daily basis.

At 8:43 GMT today USD/PLN was up 0.59% for the day to trade at 3.3060. The pair broke the first key daily resistance and touched a daily high at 3.3105 at 8:29 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

The United States probably recorded a government budget surplus of 82.3 billion USD in September, according to market expectations, after a deficit of 128.71 billion USD during the previous month. The latter was a 13% smaller deficit figure compared to the same month a year earlier. The year-to-date deficit was at the amount of 589 billion USD at the end of August, or the lowest figure in six years. In August receipts increased to 194 billion USD, or an increase by 5% year-on-year, while the outlays dropped 3% to reach 323 billion USD. A wider than projected surplus would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The Financial Management Service, US Treasury is to release the official figure at 18:00 GMT.

Poland

The surplus on Polands balance of trade probably shrank to 188.6 million EUR during August from a surplus of 393 million EUR, registered in July. The latter has also been the largest surplus since the all-time high figure of 733 million EUR in April.

Polands exports include processed fruit and vegetables, meat, dairy products, electromechanical products, vehicles, aircraft and vessels, while it imports mainly capital goods needed for industrial retooling and for manufacturing inputs (such as machinery and transport equipment), chemicals, minerals and fuels. Poland ships 79% of the total exports to the European Union, while 64% of nations imports originate from the EU.

The trade balance, as an indicator, measures the difference in value between country’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. It reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form country’s Gross Domestic Product. Generally, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate domestic demand. In case the trade balance surplus contracted more than anticipated, this would have a bearish impact on the local currency. The Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS) will release the official trade data at 12:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 3.2949. In case USD/PLN manages to breach the first resistance level at 3.3099, it will probably continue up to test 3.3315. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 3.3466.

If USD/PLN manages to breach the first key support at 3.2732, it will probably continue to slide and test 3.2582. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 3.2365.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 3.2474, M2 – 3.2657, M3 – 3.2841, M4 – 3.3024, M5 – 3.3208, M6 – 3.3391.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 3.3099. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 3.3557, R2 – 3.3970, R3 – 3.4428. The three key support levels are: S1 – 3.2686, S2 – 3.2228, S3 – 3.1815.