Forex Market: GBP/CAD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/CAD within the range of 1.7918-1.8021. The pair closed at 1.7958, losing 0.17% on a daily basis.

At 7:53 GMT today GBP/CAD was up 0.01% for the day to trade at 1.7963. The pair touched a daily high at 1.7978 at 5:35 GMT.

Fundamental view

United Kingdom

At 11:00 GMT Bank of England is to announce its decision on monetary policy. The benchmark interest rate (repo rate) will probably be left unchanged at the record low level of 0.50%. The rate has been at that level since BoEs policy meeting on March 5th 2009. The repo rate applies to open market operations of the central bank with other banks, building societies, securities firms etc.

During his speech at the 146th annual Trades Union Congress, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney indicated that the bank may begin raising its benchmark interest rate by the spring of 2015. According to extracts from the speech: “The recovery has exceeded all expectations. It has momentum. There has been a sustained and sharp fall in the unemployment rate to 6.4%. Over 800 000 jobs have been created in the past year alone. We expect robust growth of 3.5% this year and 3% in 2015. With many of the conditions for the economy to normalize now met, the point at which interest rates also begin to normalize is getting closer. In recent months the judgment about precisely when to raise Bank Rate has become more balanced. Moreover, the precise timing of the first rate rise is less important than our expectation that, when rates do begin to rise, those increases are likely to be gradual and limited. Rates will go up only as far and as fast as is consistent with price stability as part of a durable expansion, with the maximum sustainable level of employment.”

Short-term interest rates are of utmost importance for the valuation of national currencies. Maintaining or reducing the repo rate usually leads to a sell-off in the national currency.

At the same time, the pace of BoE’s monetary stimulus will probably be left without change as well, at 375 billion GBP. The asset-purchasing programme, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves was started on March 5th 2009, while the scale of this programme was increased by 50 billion GBP to the current 375 billion GBP on July 5th 2012. The central bank issues new money in order to purchase gilts from private investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies. In case the scale of monetary stimulus is increased (in order to further spur economic growth), this will usually devalue the local currency.

Canada

Selling prices of new homes in Canada probably rose 0.1% in August compared to a month ago, following a flat performance in July. The New Housing Price Index is a key indicator, reflecting the health of nation’s housing market. In case prices surged more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the loonie. Statistics Canada will release the official data at 12:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.7966. In case GBP/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.8013, it will probably continue up to test 1.8069. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.8116.

If GBP/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.7910, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.7863. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.7807.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.7835, M2 – 1.7887, M3 – 1.7938, M4 – 1.7990, M5 – 1.8041, M6 – 1.8093.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.8027. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.8120, R2 – 1.8291, R3 – 1.8384. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.7856, S2 – 1.7763, S3 – 1.7592.