Forex Market: EUR/HUF daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/HUF within the range of 309.450-312.520. The pair closed at 312.000, gaining 0.64% on a daily basis.

At 6:34 GMT today EUR/HUF was down 0.13% for the day to trade at 311.675. The pair touched a daily low at 311.500 at 6:36 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Italian Business Confidence

Confidence among manufacturing companies in Italy probably remained almost unchanged, with the corresponding index coming in at 95.5 in September, from 95.7 in August.

The Manufacturing Confidence survey features 4 000 Italian companies. Respondents give their opinion regarding the current trend of order books, production and inventories, short-term forecasts on order books, production, prices and the general economic situation.

The index of business confidence is seasonally adjusted and has a base year of 2005. Readings of 100.0 signify neutrality in business sentiment. Values exceeding 100.0 imply improving confidence, while values below 100.0 are related with low expectations. Higher than anticipated values may have a limited bullish effect on the common currency. The official reading by ISTAT is due out at 9:00 GMT.

Hungary

The rate of unemployment in Hungary probably remained steady at 7.9% in August, according to expectations. The rate has been falling gradually since August 2013.

It represents the percentage of the eligible work force that is unemployed, but is actively seeking employment. This is generally considered as a leading indicator for the economy, as rising values suggest the labor market is not faring well given the current economic conditions, and vice versa. Thus, rising unemployment rate suggests a slack in the economy and is deemed bearish for the Hungarian forint, while a lower unemployment level implies economic expansion and, therefore, a stronger national currency.

Hungarys Central Statistical Office is to release the official rate at 7:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 311.323. In case EUR/HUF manages to breach the first resistance level at 313.197, it will probably continue up to test 314.393. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 316.267.

If EUR/HUF manages to breach the first key support at 310.127, it will probably continue to slide and test 308.253. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 307.057.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 307.655, M2 – 309.190, M3 – 310.725, M4 – 312.260, M5 – 313.795, M6 – 315.330.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 312.427. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 314.863, R2 – 318.362, R3 – 320.798. The three key support levels are: S1 – 308.928, S2 – 306.492, S3 – 302.993.