Forex Market: EUR/CHF daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/CHF within the range of 1.2062-1.2090. The pair closed at 1.2083, gaining 0.07% on a daily basis.

At 7:29 GMT today EUR/CHF was down 0.06% for the day to trade at 1.2079. The pair touched a daily low at 1.2078 at 7:31 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Italian retail sales

Seasonally adjusted retail sales in Italy probably increased 0.2% in July compared to June, according to the median forecast by experts, after in June the index of sales had a flat performance, while in May sales dropped 0.7%. Annualized sales probably decreased 0.7% in July, after in June the index dropped 2.6%, or the most considerable decline since March.

The index reflects the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales by retailers in the country and provides key information regarding consumer spending trend. However, as retail sales in Italy tend to be seasonal and volatile, a larger than expected rate of increase would have a limited bullish effect on the euro. The National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) is to release the official data at 8:00 GMT.

Draghi remarks

On Wednesday European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the financial institution will continue the current policy course of low rates for as long as it takes for the rate of inflation in the Euro region to approach the 2% inflation target, providing price stability. Draghi also stressed on the need for structural reforms in some of the member states in the region.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.2078. In case EUR/CHF manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.2095, it will probably continue up to test 1.2106. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.2123.

If EUR/CHF manages to breach the first key support at 1.2067, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.2050. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.2039.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.2045, M2 – 1.2059, M3 – 1.2073, M4 – 1.2087, M5 – 1.2101, M6 – 1.2115.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.2085. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.2112, R2 – 1.2153, R3 – 1.2180. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.2044, S2 – 1.2017, S3 – 1.2000.