Forex Market: EUR/PLN daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw EUR/PLN within the range of 4.2336-4.2058. The pair closed at 4.2096, down 0.32% on a daily basis.

At 7:17 GMT today EUR/PLN was up 0.06% for the day to trade at 4.2119. The pair held in a daily range between 4.2061 and 4.2177.

Fundamental view

German economic growth

Destatis reported at 06:00 GMT today that the German economy matched projections and expanded at an annualized 0.8% rate in the second quarter, the lowest rate of growth since Q1 2013. This also matched a preliminary reading released on August 14th and trailed the preceding three months’ 2.5% expansion.

Quarter-on-quarter, the leading EU economy shrank by 0.2%, as expected, matching the preliminary reading and trailing the first quarter’s 0.7% growth.

Eurozone factory growth

Spain’s manufacturing activity growth eased in August, as anticipated, with the Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index sliding to 52.8, marking a slowdown from 53.9 in July. Analysts had projected a drop to 53.1. This, however, was Spains ninth straight month of factory growth.

Activity in Italy’s sector of manufacturing probably expanded in August at a slower rate as well, with the corresponding PMI expected to come in at a reading of 50.8, from 51.9 in May. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate increased activity. Markit Economics is expected to release the official data at 7:45 GMT on Monday.

France’s final manufacturing PMI probably remained in the zone of contraction this month, confirming the preliminary PMI reading of 46.5, which was reported on August 21st. The official reading is due out at 7:50 GMT. If confirmed, this would be the fourth straight month of contraction.

The final reading of Germany’s manufacturing PMI will probably also confirm the preliminary value, with the index coming in at 52.0, down from 52.2 in July. Markit will release the official reading at 7:55 GMT.

The final manufacturing PMI in the Euro zone probably also confirmed the preliminary value of 50.8 released earlier in August, down from 51.8 in July. The official reading is scheduled to be released at 8:00 GMT. The PMI is based on a monthly survey, encompassing a sample of business entities, which represents private sector conditions in terms of new orders, output, employment, prices etc. Higher-than-expected readings would provide support to the common currency.

Poland

Markit Economics reported at 07:00 GMT that factory growth in Poland matched expectations and posted a minor contraction in August. The corresponding Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0 from 49.4 in July, marking the second straight month of declines.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 4.2163. In case EUR/PLN manages to breach the first resistance level at 4.2269, it will probably continue up to test 4.2441. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 4.2547.

If EUR/PLN manages to breach the first key support at 4.1991, it will probably continue to slide and test 4.1885. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside will probably continue to 4.1713.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 4.1799, M2 – 4.1938, M3 – 4.2077, M4 – 4.2216, M5 – 4.2355, M6 – 4.2494.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 4.2037. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 4.2394, R2 – 4.2687, R3 – 4.3044. The three key support levels are: S1 – 4.1744, S2 – 4.1387, S3 – 4.1094.