Forex Market: GBP/AUD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session GBP/AUD traded within the range of 1.8018-1.8193 and closed at 1.8167, losing 0.74% on a daily basis.

At 7:02 GMT today GBP/AUD was gaining 0.08% for the day to trade at 1.8167. The pair touched a daily high at 1.8191 at 4:20 GMT, breaching the first key weekly resistance level.

Fundamental view

The deficit on United Kingdom’s trade balance probably narrowed to 8.900 billion GBP in June from a deficit figure of 9.204 billion GBP during the preceding month. This indicator is also known as visible trade balance, because it reflects the difference in value between exported and imported physical goods, without the inclusion of exported and imported services. Since UK economy is to a great extent dependent on trade, the visible trade balance is considered as a key factor, providing clues over the resilience of nation’s economic growth. In case UK trade deficit shrank more than anticipated, this would provide support to the pound. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the official figure at 8:30 GMT.

At the same time, the deficit on United Kingdom’s trade balance with countries outside the European Union probably narrowed to 3.700 billion GBP in June from a deficit of 3.961 billion GBP in the preceding month. A higher than expected deficit would have a bearish effect on sterling.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.8126. In case GBP/AUD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.8234, it will probably continue up to test 1.8301. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.8409.

If GBP/AUD manages to breach the first key support at 1.8059, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.7951. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.7884.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.8093. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.8155, R2 – 1.8250, R3 – 1.8312. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.7998, S2 – 1.7936, S3 – 1.7841.