Grains trading outlook: wheat, corn and soybeans futures slide after Monday rally

Grains futures were lower during early trade in Europe today, after rallying on Monday, though not before soybeans and corn reached four-year lows. The US posted weekly crops readings yesterday, revealing steady progress, while weather patterns call for some rain over growing areas in the US, easing pressure.

Weather forecasts project rainfall for the western Midwest this week, which would ease pressure on developing beans, while the eastern half will see more rains during the weekend. No heat is forecast, paring pressure on crops. The Northern Plains will also see some showers and storms, offering plenty moisture, while the Southern Plains crops will face decreasing soil moisture, as above-normal temps are projected, alongside fewer showers. Heavy rains in Europe caused some wheat harvest delays and hurt quality, prompting a rally for US futures. This week will be dryer and warmer, easing pressure on crops and pressuring prices.

The US Department of Agricultures statistical arm, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) posted weekly readings on US crop progress yesterday. The log revealed that by August 3 wheat, beans and corn crops were all still in very good shape.

The surprisingly good quality across all US crops has pressured futures down some 17% this year.

Wheat

Wheat futures for September delivery traded at $5.426 per bushel at 9:20 GMT on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) today, down 0.23% for the day. The contract added 1.82% yesterday, after dropping about 0.5% last week.

“U.S. wheat has edged higher on the back of EU quality wheat damage as importers turn to U.S. wheat,” Gleadell Agriculture Ltd., a trader based in Gainsborough, England, said in an online report yesterday, in light of the rally. “It is looking unlikely that the EU’s main wheat exporting countries will be able to meet quality specifications and will see a surplus of feed wheat.”

Meanwhile, U.S. exporters sold 801,007 tons of wheat in the week through July 24, and 81% weekly increase, USDA data show.

Mondays NASS report pointed that spring wheat remains in top-notch condition, with 70% of crops reported in good or excellent condition. Meanwhile, winter wheat harvest was 90% complete, well ahead of the 85% average for the past five years.

Corn, soybeans

December corn traded at $3.666 per bushel, down 0.68%. The contract closed 1.93% higher on Monday, though it also reached a four-year low of $3.610.

The log from yesterday showed corn crops had scored slightly lower in terms of condition, but still 73% were reported in good or excellent condition, well above the 62% for the same week of last year.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast a corn produce of 13.86 billion bushels this year, which would be the second-highest ever.

Meanwhile, November soybeans futures stood for a 0.90% drop at $10.696. Beans gained 2% yesterday, though the November contract also reached a four-year trough at $10.540.

“This month is very critical for soybean yields,” Avtar Sandu, senior commodities manager at Phillip Futures Pte, said for Bloomberg. “A little bit of weather change spooks the market.”

NASS report revealed beans were still looking quite well, with 71% of crops in good or excellent shape.

Technical support and resistance levels

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, wheat September futures central pivot point on the CBOT stands at $5.344. The contract will see its first resistance level at $5.309. If breached, it will advance to $5.419 and then to $5.481 per bushel. The first support points is estimated at $5.137. Should it be broken, wheat will test $5.075 and after that $4.965 per bushel.

December corns central pivot is at $3.655. The future will have its first resistance at $3.761 and if it broken it will advance first to $3.813 and then to $3.853 per bushel. The first support level is calculated at $3.669. Should the contract breach that, it will probably continue down to $3.629. If both support levels are penetrated corn will test $3.577 per bushel.

Beans November futures central pivot is projected at $11.102. The contract will have the front resistance level at $11.113. If it manages to pass the first level, next resistance is expected at $11.275 and then $11.387 per bushel. Meanwhile, support is expected at $10.839, $10.727 and $10.565 per bushel.