Natural gas futures were higher during early trade in Europe today. Weather forecasts project a cooler few days for most of the northern half of the US, while natural gas inventories will probably log another sizable weekly gain.
Front month natural gas futures, due in July, added 0.39% at the New York Mercantile Exchange to trade for $4.587 per million British thermal units at 8:54 GMT today. Prices ranged from $4.570 to $4.601 per mBtu. The contract added 0.29%, and so far this week the blue fuel has gained about 0.4%.
“The latest forecasts suggests that the call on nat gas for cooling demand will not be atypical for this time of the year and thus inventory injections are likely to continue to outperform the historical injections,” Dominick Chirichella, senior partner at the Energy Management Institute in New York, said in a note to clients today, cited by Bloomberg.
Chirichella added that blue fuel stockpiles probably expanded by 101 Billion cubic feet (Bcf), while Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures in New York, is expecting a gain of 93 Bcf, according to Bloomberg. NatGasWeather.com suggests a gain of about 102-107 Bcf, with a wider-than-usual range of variance.
US weather report
NatGasWeather.com reported that the US will see quite unsettled weather Thursday, with plenty of storms and heavy rains. The central and eastern US will see temperatures at several degrees below usual, accompanied by storms and rains, while the South will remain seasonably warm, with highs in the 90s. Later in the week, the Northeast and Midwest will also start warming, to see readings in the high 80s. Overall cooling demand will probably remain moderate-to-high.
In the 8-14 day outlook, NatGasWeather.com projects a warmer trend for the US. The northern half of the country will probably have some stormy and rainy days, though a high-pressure build will prevent too much cooling, and will allow for a rise in temperatures in early July.
New York will be warmer today, according to AccuWeather.com, though a strong afternoon thunderstorm will probably pass by. Readings will range 68-84 degrees Fahrenheit, just above average. Tomorrow will also see more storms and some rains, again with relatively high temperatures, before a cooling later in the week. Boston temperatures will be a few degrees below normal today, between 59 and 75, with a strong afternoon thunderstorm. Temperatures will start climbing tomorrow for a moderately warm and sunny weekend.
Chicago will be significantly cooler than normal today, with readings 10 degrees below average, ranging 61-72 degrees. It will be significantly warmer starting tomorrow, though rains and clouds will probably dominate through to next week. Down South, Houston will see quite a few storms today and in the following days, though temperatures will remain seasonal, largely ranging mid 70s to upper 80s. Next week will be warmer and sunny.
Over on the West Coast, Los Angeles will have mostly sunny weather over the following few days, with readings ranging lower 60s to upper 70s, slightly lower than usual. Seattle will be partly cloudy today, with temperatures between 55 and 72, just above average. Readings will start dropping tomorrow, for a relatively cool weekend with highs in the upper 60s.
Technical view
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case natural gas for settlement in July penetrates the first resistance level at $4.606 per million British thermal units, it will encounter next resistance at $4.643. If breached, upside movement will probably attempt to advance to $4.680 per mBtu.
If the energy source drops below its first resistance level at $4.532 per mBtu, it will see support at $4.495. If the second key support zone is breached, the power-station fuel’s downward movement may extend to $4.458 per mBtu.
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