Forex Market: CAD/MXN daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session CAD/MXN traded within the range of 11.809-11.860 and closed at 11.825.

At 10:00 GMT today CAD/MXN was gaining 0.01% for the day to trade at 11.825. The pair touched a daily high at 11.831 at 9:05 GMT.

Fundamental view

Canada

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada probably jumped 2.0% in April, compared to the same period a year ago, according to the median analysts’ estimate. In March, consumer prices jumped 1.5%.

The CPI is an indicator that takes into account changes in consumer prices of goods and services consumed by Canadians. Obtained by comparing the prices of a basket of goods consumed by households for different periods of time. The index reflects only the net price changes, as it contains only items with the same quality and quantity compared to previous periods.

The index is used as an indicator of change in core consumer prices and hence inflation. Changes in prices of goods and services are presented, according to their relative importance to the costs incurred by consumers for their acquisition. Consumer basket items are updated every four years and are derived from a household survey on savings and food costs. This is the percentage change in the index over the corresponding month a year earlier.

The Core CPI probably advanced by 1.4% in the previous month from a year ago, after a 1.3% gain in March, according to the median forecast by experts.

The Core Consumer Price Index differs from the basic CPI measure as it doesn’t take into account the indirect taxes and eight most volatile components identified by the Bank of Canada- fruit, fruit and nuts; mortgage costs, natural gas and other fuels, oils and other lubricants, public transport, tobacco products and supplies. This is the percentage change compared to the same month a year earlier.

Statistics Canada will publish its monthly report at 12:30 GMT today. Higher-than-expected readings will certainly heighten the loonie’s appeal.

Mexico

Economic activity in Mexico probably jumped by 3.5% in March from a year earlier, according to the median analysts’ estimate. In February, economic activity rose 1.74%. The economic activity index consists of three components: primary economic activities, which include activities such as extraction of natural resources and agriculture; secondary economic activities, which include industrial activity, and tertiary economic activities, which include services of all kinds.

The Mexican National Institute for Statistics and Geography (INEGI) is scheduled to release official data at 13:00 GMT today. A higher-than-projected gain in the economic activity will support peso’s demand.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case CAD/MXN manages to breach the first resistance level at 11.853, it will probably continue up to test 11.881. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 11.903.

If CAD/MXN manages to breach the first key support at 11.803, it will probably continue to slide and test 11.781. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 11.752.