Forex Market: EUR/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3698-1.3731 and closed at 1.3718.

At 6:43 GMT today EUR/USD was losing 0.01% for the day to trade at 1.3713. The pair touched a daily low at 1.3707 at 6:31 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Euro zone’s preliminary annualized Gross Domestic Product probably expanded 0.4% during the first quarter of 2014, following a 0.2% gain in the previous quarter. The quarterly GDP in the region probably rose 1.1% in Q1, after a 0.5% increase in the final three months of 2013. In case region’s economy expands more than expected, the single currency would receive support. Eurostat is to publish the official report at 9:00 GMT.

The final annualized reading of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in the Euro zone probably rose 0.7 % in April, matching the preliminary reading estimated on April 30. The HICP is used to measure and compare inflation between Member States. It is used for further evaluation of inflation, according to Art . 121 of the Amsterdam’s Agreement and directives of the European Central Bank to achieve price stability and the implementation of monetary policy. HICP is calculated based on international harmonized standards adopted by Member States. This is the percentage change compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

Eurostat is scheduled to release the official report at 09:00 GMT. A weaker-than-expected reading may prompt the ECB to ease monetary policy at their next meeting in June, in order to avoid risks of deflation. However, higher-than-expected reading will probably relieve pressure on central bank’s officials and they will not need to take imminent actions.

United States

The cost of living in the US probably increased 2.0% in April compared to the same month a year ago, according to the median analyst’ estimate. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a range of products in different categories of consumer spending, such as food, clothing, rent and medical care and etc. It excludes investment costs, such as purchases of stocks and bonds, real estate and business expenses. Life insurance is also excluded from the scheme, although health insurance, property tax and motor vehicles are present in the study. Purchases of homes, antiques and collectibles are also treated as investment costs and are therefore excluded from the study. In the compilation of the index, the urban area of the United States is divided into 38 geographic areas called index areas, all goods and services purchased by the population are divided into 211 categories. It is expressed as a percentage change from the corresponding month a year earlier.

The core CPI probably rose 1.7% in April from a year ago, according to the median forecast by experts. The core CPI, excludes prices for food and energy, because they are the two most volatile components in the CPI. For this reason, many analysts prefer to use core inflation for their objectives. Expressed as a percentage change from the corresponding month a year earlier.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is schedule to release its report at 12:30 GMT in Washington. Higher-than-expected readings will certainly heighten greenback’s demand.
In addition, the initial jobless claims in the US probably rose to 320 000 in the week ended May 10th, from 319 000 a week ago, according to the median estimate by experts. The indicator measures the number of applications for unemployment benefits that are recorded each week in a report prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States.

The data is due to be released at 12:30 GMT. In case initial jobless claims drop more than expected, this will heighten the appeal of the greenback.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3733, it will probably continue up to test 1.3749. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3766.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3700, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3683. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3667.