During yesterday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3749-1.3775 and closed at 1.3756.
At 8:00 GMT today EUR/USD was adding 0.08% for the day to trade at 1.3769. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3772 at 7:28 GMT, breaching the first resistance.
Fundamental view
Euro zone
The economic sentiment in Germany probably deteriorated to 40.0 in May, according to the median experts forecast. In April, the index came in at 43.2, which was the weakest since August 2013.
The ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) economic expectations index is published monthly. The study involves 350 financial experts. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and those that are pessimistic about the expected economic development in Germany over the next six months. A positive figure indicates that the proportion of optimists is larger than that of the pessimists.
In addition, the ZEW economic expectations index in the Euro zone probably jumped to 63.5 this month, according to the median analysts estimate. In April, the index came in at 61.2.
Higher-than-projected readings would certainly provide support to the 18-nation common currency. The official data is to be released at 9:00 GMT.
United States
Retail Sales in the US probably rose 0.4% in April, following a 1.1% gain in the previous month.
The indicator includes the total volume of wholesale and retail sales (cash or credit) of companies, mainly specializing in the retail sector. Sales are measured net, after deduction of the costs of refinancing. They do not include taxes paid by the buyer directly to the local government or the federal budget. These calculations measure the value of the operations used mostly by stores, whose main activity is retail sales. The index excludes retail sales made by manufacturers, wholesalers, and other core businesses who operate in sectors, other than the retail sector. This is the percentage change in the index from the previous month.
In addition, retail sales, excluding sales of autos or core retail sales probably rose 0.6% last month. Following a 0.7% increase in March. Sales of autos, which comprise about 20% of total retail sales are excluded from the index, because their high volatility distorts the overall trend. Therefore, data without auto sales is considered a better indicator of the changing market trend. This is the percentage change in the index from the previous month.
Higher-than-expected readings would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The US Census Bureau will release an official report at 12:30 GMT.
Technical view
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3771, it will probably continue up to test 1.3786. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3797.
If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3745, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3734. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3719.
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