Forex Market: EUR/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3863-1.3889 and closed at 1.3870.

At 6:47 GMT today EUR/USD was losing 0.07% for the day to trade at 1.3859. The pair touched a daily low at 1.3856 at 5:44 GMT, breaching the first support level of 1.3859.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

The final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the Euro zone will probably remain unchanged at 53.3 in April, matching the preliminary reading estimated in March, according to the median forecast by experts. The index is based on a monthly survey, which includes carefully selected companies that are representative of the state of the private sector in the economy and track the changes in production, new orders, market share, employment and prices in the manufacturing sector.

The PMI is the first economic indicator for each month, providing information on the changing economic conditions, significantly earlier than the official state statistics. It is presented as a scale from 1 to 100. Readings above 50 are connected with a positive outlook for economic growth. Conversely, values ​​below 50 indicate a less optimistic forecast. This is a preliminary value of the indicator.

The research group Markit Economics will release the official figures at 8:00 GMT.

In addition, the jobless rate in the Euro zone as a whole probably remained steady at 11.9% in March. The official rate is due to be released at 9:00 GMT by Eurostat. Lower than expected unemployment would be supportive for the 18-nation common currency.

United States

Employers in all sectors of economy in the United States, excluding the farming industry, probably added 210 000 new jobs in April, according to the median forecast by experts, after a job gain of 192 000 in the preceding month. Creation of jobs is considered of utmost importance for consumer spending, while the latter is a major driving force behind economic growth. In case of a larger than expected gain in jobs, the US currency would receive a boost.

In addition, the rate of unemployment in the United States probably decreased to 6.6% last month from 6.7% in March. In case the rate meets expectations or even drops further, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback.

Both reports are due to be released at 12:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3885, it will probably continue up to test 1.3900. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3911.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3859, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3848. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3833.