Forex Market: EUR/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3801-1.3855 and closed at 1.3817.

At 7:22 GMT today EUR/USD was gaining 0.07% for the day to trade at 1.3827. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3829 at 6:50 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

Durable goods orders in the US probably jumped by 2.0% in March, following a 2.2% in the previous month, according to the median estimate by experts. Durable goods are new or second hand goods that usually last for a period of over 3 years. Wholesalers sell durable goods such as motor vehicles, furniture, construction materials, machinery and equipment (including household appliances), metals and minerals (except petroleum), sporting goods, toys and goods for leisure activities, renewable materials and spare parts.

Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense probably rose 1.0% in March, after a 1.8% increase in the previous month, according to the median analyst’ estimate.

The US Census Bureau is scheduled to publish an official report at 12:30 GMT. In case, durable goods orders rose more than expected, the greenback’s demand will certainly be supported.

In addition, the initial jobless claims in the US probably rose to 310 000 in the week ended April 19th, from 304 000 a week ago, according to the median estimate by experts. The indicator measures the number of applications for unemployment benefits that are recorded each week in a report prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States. Initial application or (Initial Claim) means a completed document from an unemployed person before the local government, which is considered a claim for compensation or the possibility of compensation. The completion of the initial claim marks the beginning of a period in which the applicant receives unemployment benefits. The survey covers the number of applications registered in the previous week and is an important indicator concerning the health of the US labor market.

The statistical arm of the US Department of Labor will release an official report at 12:30 GMT today. If jobless claims rose less than expected, this will provide support for the US dollar.

Euro zone

At 08:00 GMT, the Ifo Institute for Economic Research will publish its IFO Business Climate Index for Germany, the largest economy in the euro zone. The index is expected to have slightly deteriorated to 110.4 this month, from 110.7 in March.

The index is based on a monthly survey among 7,000 respondents from companies in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail sectors. Respondents give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They characterize their companies’ situation as “good”, ” satisfactory” or ” poor ” and their expectations for their business over the next six months as ” more favorable “, ” unchanged ” or ” more unfavorable ” . The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of respondents that answered the situation is “good” and those that assess it is “bad”, while the value of the balance for future business expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses ” more favorable ” and ” more unfavorable “. Ifo business climate index represents the average balance of the two sub-indexes, the sub-index of current conditions and the sub-index of business expectations. The composite index uses a value of 100 points as a separator between the positive and negative forecasts. The more the result gets away from 100 points, the greater the confidence of the respondents.

A higher than expected reading will certainly provide support to the 18-nation common currency.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3848, it will probably continue up to test 1.3878. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3902.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3794, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3770. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3740.