Forex Market: USD/SGD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/SGD within the range of 1.3660-1.3725. The pair closed at 1.3701, edging up 0.25% on a daily basis. It has been the 9th gain in the past 22 trading days and also a second consecutive one. The daily high has been the highest level since March 16th, when a high of 1.3855 was registered. USD/SGD has lost 2.50% of its value so far during the current month, following a 1.23% slump in February.

At 9:13 GMT today USD/SGD was edging up 0.10% on the day to trade at 1.3715. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3738 during mid-Asian trade, overshooting the upper range breakout level (R4), and a daily low at 1.3697 during the early phase of the Asian trading session.

On Friday USD/SGD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Gross Domestic Product – final estimate

The final estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product probably pointed to an annualized rate of growth of 1.0% in the final quarter of 2015. If so, it would confirm the 2nd GDP estimate, reported on February 26th. The 2nd estimate outpaced the preliminary one, because business inventories were revised up, while the negative impact from trade was lower than anticipated, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

According to the February 26th report, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) contributed 1.38 percentage points to US growth, as it increased 2% in Q4. The preliminary GDP report pointed to a 2.2% PCE growth. Fixed investment grew 0.1% in the final quarter, down from a 0.2% increase in the preliminary report. Non-residential investment contracted 1.9% during the period compared to a 1.8% slump in the preliminary estimate, while residential investment rose 8%, slowing down from an 8.1% growth in the preliminary release.

Private inventories subtracted 0.14 percentage points from US growth in Q4, as business entities accumulated inventories at the amount of USD 81.7 billion compared to USD 68.6 billion, as reported previously.

International trade subtracted 0.25 percentage points from growth in Q4 compared to -0.47 percentage points in the preliminary report. US exports contracted 2.7% in the final quarter of 2015 compared to a 2.5% decline in the preliminary release, while US imports fell 0.6% during the period compared to a 1.1% surge reported previously.

In case the final GDP exceeded market expectations, this would have a strong bullish effect on the US dollar. The official report is due out at 12:30 GMT.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/SGD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.3707
R2 – 1.3713
R3 (range resistance) – 1.3720
R4 (range breakout) – 1.3737

S1 – 1.3695
S2 – 1.3688
S3 (range support) – 1.3683
S4 (range breakout) – 1.3665

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/SGD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.3638
R1 – 1.3802
R2 – 1.4018
R3 – 1.4182

S1 – 1.3422
S2 – 1.3258
S3 – 1.3042