Forex Market: EUR/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3787-1.3830 and closed at 1.3792.

At 7:16 GMT today EUR/USD was gaining 0.06% for the day to trade at 1.3801. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3806 at 6:50 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Consumer confidence in the euro zone probably improved to -9.2 in April, from -9.3 in the previous month, according to the median estimate by experts. The index of economic sentiment or economic confidence is an indicator that consists of five major components, reflecting the mood in various economic sectors. They are presented with different weights in the composite index, and are the following: industrial confidence, confidence in the services sector, consumer confidence, confidence in the construction sector and confidence in the sector of retail sales. Indices of different types of trust are seasonally adjusted balances, generated from the responses of a number of issues directly related to the sector.

The European Commission provides preliminary data on consumer confidence two weeks before the final evaluation. It will release official data at 14:00 GMT today. A higher than expected reading will provide support for the 18-nation common currency.

United States

At 14:00 GMT the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will report on existing home sales in the United States during March. In February compared to January the index of existing home sales dropped 0.4% to a level of 4.6 million. The sample of data encompasses condos, co-ops and single-family houses.

Statistical data on existing home sales is often used along with statistical figures regarding the New home sales and Pending home sales, with the major objective being to draw a conclusion how nation’s housing sector is performing, regardless of interest rates. The most active house-purchasing period in the United States is usually between the months of March through June. Therefore, in case statistical data revealed a sudden drop in the number of homes sold rather than an improvement during this period, this would be considered as a signal of weakness in country’s housing market.

The report on existing home sales usually does not cause a real direct impact on US economy. Actually, this effect appears to be minimal, due to the fact that nothing is produced with the mere sale of an existing home. In terms of economic activity, the sale of an existing house may be related only to interior design and purchases of new furniture.

In case the index increased more than anticipated, this would support the greenback.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3819, it will probably continue up to test 1.3846. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3862.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3776, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3760. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3733.