Forex Market: USD/JPY trading forecast for Monday

During Friday’s trading session USD/JPY traded within the range of 102.37-102.57 and closed at 102.42.

Fundamental view

The Japanese Ministry of Finance is scheduled to release official data at 23:50 GMT on April 20th. In February the deficit was 800.3 billion JPY, as annualized exports rose 9.8% and annualized imports climbed 9.0%. At the same time, Japan’s seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance produced a deficit at the amount of 1,133.2 billion JPY in February.

The Japanese trade balance reflects the international transactions of goods and services (exports and imports) and measures them at prices free on board (FOB). The trade balance covers five major categories of total trade (general merchandise): goods production, repairs on goods, goods acquired in ports by carriers and non-investment gold. The acquisition of investment gold and investments in gold savings accounts are not included in the index. Total trade involves transactions of movable goods for which there is a change in ownership between domestic and foreign partners. Goods production includes all raw materials exported or imported for production, as well as those that are subject to re-export. The repair of the goods includes movable goods which are subject to import or export for repair, such as aircraft or ships owned by domestic or foreign entities. Goods purchased in ports by carriers include fuel, food staff and other products acquired in Japan or overseas carriers( as a ships or aircrafts) from local or foreign entities. Non-investment gold covers all transactions in gold, with the exception of the gold reserves of the government, which do not relate to investment gold or gold savings accounts.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case USD/JPY manages to breach the first resistance level at 102.54, it will probably continue up to test 102.65. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 102.74.

If USD/JPY manages to breach the first key support at 102.34, it will probably continue to slide and test 102.25. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 102.13.