Forex Market: EUR/CHF daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/CHF traded within the range of 1.2196-1.2225 and closed at 1.2200.

At 6:21 GMT today EUR/CHF was losing 0.05% for the day to trade at 1.2195, which currently is the pairs lowest point on trading Tuesday.

Fundamental view

The deficit on Frances trade balance probably shrank to 4.900 billion EUR during February from a deficit figure of 5.732 billion EUR in January. Nations trade balance reflects the difference in value between exported and imported goods during the respective period. Export demand has a direct link to demand for the national currency and also causes an impact on levels of production. In case Frances trade balance deficit contracted more than projected in February, this would have a bullish effect on the euro. The Ministry of Finance will publish the official figure at 6:45 GMT.

At the same time, the deficit on Frances budget balance probably expanded to 22.0 billion EUR in February from a deficit of 12.7 billion EUR during the prior month. The government budget balance reflects the difference in value between governments income and expenditure during the year-to-date. In case Frances budget deficit widened more than anticipated, this would have a bearish effect on the common currency. The official report is due out at 6:45 GMT.

Meanwhile, annualized retail sales in Switzerland probably rose at a pace of 0.9% in February, according to the median estimate by experts, following another 0.3% climb in January. This indicator reflects the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales by retailers in the country and provides key information regarding consumer spending trend, while the latter is a major driving force behind economic growth. In case retail sales increased at a faster than expected pace, this would provide support to the franc. The Federal Statistical Office is expected to release the official report at 7:15 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/CHF manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.2218, it will probably continue up to test 1.2236. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.2247.

If EUR/CHF manages to breach the first key support at 1.2189, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.2178. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.2160.