Grain futures mixed, soybeans set for the biggest weekly drop since August on speculation about China

Grain futures were mixed on Friday, soybeans headed for the biggest weekly decline in more than seven months amid signs of slowing demand from China, the worlds largest importer. Meanwhile, corn advanced, while wheat erased earlier losses to hover near the strongest level in more than four months.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans futures for settlement in May, fell by 0.42% to trade at $13.9013 per bushel by 14:38 GMT. That would leave prices 4.8% lower this week, set for the biggest decline since the week ended August 2nd. Futures touched a session high at $14.0075 per bushel, while day’s low was hit at $13.8262 per bushel. On March 7th, prices touched $14.5962 per bushel, the strongest since July 24th.

Soybeans futures advanced 7.7% this year, rebounding from a 8.5% drop in 2013, on increased demand from China and amid concern about production losses in Brazil,the top exporter.

According to a Bloomberg News survey of five crushers, China has delayed shipping of about 500 000 metric tons of soybeans, with nations crushers asking exporters to change March and April delivery to June and July. The cargoes are mostly from Brazil, the survey also revealed. Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. reported that crushing soybeans into animal feed has become unprofitable this month in China as hog prices declined, while demand from poultry farms fell amid bird flu outbreaks.

China has already rejected 245 000 metric tons of US soybeans for delivery by August 31st, data by the US Department of Agriculture showed last week. Data also showed that as of the period ended February 27th, China imported 25.5 million metric tons of US soybeans since September 1st, nearly 70% of all shipments by the country. The US is the second largest exporter of soybeans in the world, after Brazil.

Corn advances

On the Chicago Board of Trade, corn futures for May delivery rose by 0.46% to trade at $4.8663 a bushel by 14:39 GMT. Futures hit a session high at $4.8888 per bushel, while day’s low was touched at $4.8138 per bushel. On March 7th, corn futures touched $5.0238 per bushel, the strongest since August 27 and capped a 5.3% weekly gain, the biggest advance since the period ended May 31.

Corn has surged 14% this year after the escalating tension between Ukraine and the Russian Federation threatened to disrupt shipments from the Black Sea region. The grain plunged nearly 40% in 2013, the steepest annual drop on record and the worst annual performance since at least 1959.

DTN.com reported on March 13th that soil moisture for second crop corn and late-filling early soybeans and corn in central Brazil is adequate to surplus at the moment.

Meanwhile, the website reported that conditions in central Argentina continue to be mostly favorable for filling and maturing corn and soybeans at this time. Scattered thundershowers are expected at the end of this week, recharging soil moisture, but also being unfavorable for early-maturing crops.

Wheat hovers near 4-1/2-month high

On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat futures for settlement in May surged by 2.3% to trade at $6.8888 per bushel by 14:42 GMT. Prices touched a session high of $6.9062 per bushel, while day’s bottom was touched at $6.6988 a bushel. Yesterday, prices touched $6.9625 per bushel, the strongest since October 25.

Wheat settled 8.2% up in February, after plunging 8.3% in January and 9.5% in December, on expectations for a record global output of 712.7 million tons.

According to data by the International Grains Council (IGC), Ukraine will be the sixth-largest global wheat exporter, as it is forecast to ship 9.5 million metric tons of the grain in the 2013-14 season through June, up from 7.1 million tons a year ago.

At the same time, the parliament of the southern Ukrainian region, Crimea voted on Tuesday that the Black Sea peninsula will declare itself an independent state if its residents approve a March 16 referendum on splitting from Ukraine and joining the Russian Federation as Western leaders threaten sanctions. Yesterday, the US President Barack Obama assured the Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk that the US will stood with Ukraine to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Data by the US Department of Agriculture showed that as of the period ended February 27th, US exporters sold 556 072 tons of wheat for delivery this marketing year, up more than 50% from a week ago. The US is the largest exporter of the grain in in the world, also according to data by the USDA.

DTN’s March 13th forecast called for a storm system to bring snow and rain over the eastern Midwest and to continue delay the start of the spring fieldwork. According to the website, the soil moisture for red winter wheat is adequate at the moment. The seven-to-ten days time period continues with manly below-normal temperatures and slow warming of soils. At the same time, western Midwest have a more beneficial temperature pattern, but lack soil moisture in many places.

Meanwhile, limited rainfall is expected across the dry areas of the southwestern Plains during the next 10 days. On Tuesday, wind blasts reached 45-50 mile per hour. Concern over crops started to increase as the spring season is nearing and for now, there are no signs of improving amounts of rainfall. The weather pattern may change somewhat later in March, but for now signs are not convincing enough.